A Chechnya Primer

Where and what is Chechnya?
Chechnya, capital Grozny, is a 6,000-square-mile (smaller than New Jersey), mostly Muslim republic in the Caucasus region with a population of about 1 million. Its legal status as a fully autonomous part of the Russian federation was the outcome of the cease-fire that followed the bloody but inconclusive 1994-96 war between the Russian army and Chechen separatists. Before the fall of the Soviet Union, Chechnya was classified as an autonomous region — a rung below an autonomous republic (most of which, such as Georgia, were allowed independence after the Soviet breakup). The area was conquered by the czars in the 19th century and remained a hotbed of sedition for most of the century. Stalin forcibly removed the entire Chechen population during World War II for fear they would collude against Russia with the advancing Germans, and they returned to find their lands carved up among hostile ethnic groups. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Chechnya tried to break away and declare independence. That prompted the 1994 Russian clampdown and a brutal war that left at least 80,000 dead before a 1996 cease-fire established a de facto, but not legal, independence. Shortly before its ground troops re-entered the territory in October, Moscow announced that it no longer recognized the Chechen government of President Aslan Mashkadov and claimed the legal right to deploy its army there.

Why has Russia restarted its war against the breakaway republic?
The official reason is to stamp out the Islamic guerrillas who in the summer had launched a separatist insurrection in neighboring Dagestan, and whom Moscow blames for a series of terrorist bombings inside Russia. But Moscow is well aware that President Mashkadov has no control over the guerrillas operating from his increasingly anarchic country; in fact, they have demanded his ouster. The full-scale invasion therefore seems in part an opportunity for the Russian military to redeem itself from what was a humiliating failure in the last Chechnya war. There is also widespread speculation in the Russian press that the campaign was launched with domestic political considerations in mind: If it goes well, it gives President Yeltsin's chosen successor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, an opportunity to burnish his reputation; if it goes badly, it gives Yeltsin a pretext to postpone next July's presidential election.

Why is Chechnya important to Russia?
Wedged between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus region is the conduit for the lucrative Caspian Sea oil pipeline and also offers Russia important access to sea and trade routes. More than 1 million ethnic Russians live in the Caucasus region, which is integrated into the Russian economy. Chechnya is only one of 37 hot spots in a region where ethnic minorities are threatening to rebel against Moscow's rule, and Russia fears that losing it might open the floodgates to a widespread challenge to its territorial integrity.

Is Chechnya any match for Russia militarily?
While the Russian army far outguns the lightly armed Chechen militias, the Chechens are fierce fighters motivated by religious hatred, nationalism and their very survival. Although Chechnya's warlords became bitterly divided in the years following the 1996 cease-fire, the new Russian offensive has brought them together to fight a "jihad" (holy war) against Moscow. And Moscow has already admitted that the Chechens are putting up a determined resistance, having downed Russian aircraft and killed a number of troops. While the Russian public had supported action against the forces blamed for the terrorist bombings, significant military casualties may, as in the 1994-96 conflict, turn them quickly against the war. Also, international opinion turned strongly against Russia in the last war when it became clear that Russian forces had killed tens of thousands of Chechen civilians. Reports from the current offensive suggest that although the Russians are being more careful, Chechen civilians are once again dying in large numbers.