Deng: One in a Billion

"Leaders," Deng Xiaoping once said, "are men, not gods." To China's 1.2 billion people, the diminutive Deng, who rose to become one of the most significant figures of the 20th Century, was a little of both. Although it was Mao who destroyed the old, feudal China, it was Deng who brought the country into the modern age. Amid the wreckage of Mao's Cultural Revolution, Deng launched reforms that have quadrupled the size of the economy, leaving China poised to become an economic giant in the 21st Century. By the end of his life, the communist leadership had elevated "Deng Xiaoping Thought" on economics to gospel and almost deified him. It was an ironic and ultimately frustrating end for a pragmatist who sought to rid China of "personality cults." As early as 1956, he warned Mao of the danger of the cult growing around the chairman, a warning that led to his downfall during the Cultural Revolution. Ten years after he told party members that "It is our task to continue to observe faithfully the Central Committee's principle of opposition to the elevation and glorification of the individual," Deng was forced by the Red Guard to recant. "Ideologically, I must confess that not only have I not raised high the banner of Mao Tse-tung thought, but I have not even lifted this banner up," said the contrite Deng. "Recent events have revealed me as an unreformed petit-bourgeois intellectual who has failed to pass the tests posed by socialism."

In the process of recovering from the disasters of Mao's rule that saw some 40 million people starve to death in the ill-advised Great Leap Forward, Deng abandoned much of the baggage of communist theory but remained dedicated to one-party rule -- a contradiction that still eats at the heart of the People's Republic. His distrust of mass political movements fueled a conviction that only a strong hand can prevent chaos. Acting on that belief, Deng allowed the bloody 1989 crackdown on the student democracy movement in Tiananmen Square. The Communist Party remains reluctant to privatize the vast network of insolvent state-owned industries, which provide jobs and social benefits for millions of workers. Under the party's Mafia-like reign, official corruption continues to proliferate even as disparities of wealth grow more painfully evident. In the end, though, it is the success of these very reforms designed to preserve the party that may lead to its downfall. To many of China's growing class of young entrepreneurs, the party, and politics in general, are growing less and less relevant. -- Mark Coatney

After Deng

BEIJING: As China contemplates life after Deng, lurking in the shadows is not one probable successor, but five. For the moment, the favored contender is President and Communist Party General Secretary Jiang Zemin, 70, who has been in the daily driver's seat for government policy ever since Deng vanished into semi-retirement in 1990. Although his constantly shifting political loyalties rank him as a bit of a loose cannon among some Western analysts, Jiang has shown steely determination in consolidating his own power, in part by filling key political positions with allies from his days as mayor of Shanghai. Even as he faithfully mouthed the Deng economic reform policy, Jiang also made overtures to China's influential hard-liners, overseeing annual budget increases and new weapons shipments for the army and sounding off to the U.S. on Taiwan. Perhaps most significant, Jiange firmly advocates a return to Chinese "spiritual civilization." This position is viewed as an attack on the watchword of the Deng-sponsored economic boom, "To get rich is glorious." Jiang's moves may not have the desired effect, though. TIME's Bruce Nelan reports that after nearly two decades of Deng's market reforms, the Communist Party's hold on China's 1.2 billion people is weak. With a population more interested in making money than adhering to a rigid political doctrine, social upheaval is always a possibility. If so, the also-rans in the race for power might yet be able to give Jiang a rough ride. One key challenger is Qiao Shi, 71, chairman of the National People's Congress, China's rubber-stamp parliament, whose recent attempts at giving Congress real power have suggested he may be a liberal at heart. Another key challenger: Deputy Premier Zhu Rongji, 67, whose economic portfolio has made him popular with China's rising class of businessmen, but whose anti-inflation policies have irked the general population. Lagging further behind are Premier Li Peng, hadicapped by his involvement in the 1989 Tianammen massacre, and the so-called "Cross-Century Leader" Hu Jintao, who, at 50, is the youngest member of the Politburo's standing committee. While the infighting is hidden from public view for now, don't expect China to enter a new era of good feeling among the country's collegium of rulers, Nelan cautions. "The history of the communist leadership has been one of constant power struggling," he notes. "Eventually, we'll see one or the other leader fall out of sight." Start counting. -- Elizabeth Owen

Which Way Will
China Blow?

WASHINGTON: "China today plays an important role in world affairs in no small part because of Mr. Deng's decision to open his country to the outside world," President Clinton said upon hearing of Deng's death. "He spurred China's historic economic reform program, which greatly improved living standards in China and modernized much of the nation." But while Clinton was praising China's recent past, diplomats in Washington were uncertain about its future. TIME's Dean Fischer reports: "There's uncertainty in Washington, but not widespread concern. Some feel that relations could even improve between the two countries." While Deng's handpicked successors, president Jiang Zemin and premier Li Peng, are expected to hold onto office in the short term, concerns are growing that neither Jiang nor Li have Deng's stature with the all-important military and party elders. Fischer notes that a real indicator of which way the party is leaning will show in whether or not Li stays in place. If Li, a hard-liner, especially towards the US, is replaced with a progressive, Fischer said, the US can expect more open relations with China in the future. Beyond that, the clearest signals on China's future direction, Fischer says, will be seen when the Communist Party congress meets next fall. For the moment, however, it will be business as usual. In a piece of remarkable timing, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was due to arrive in Beijing next Tuesday, which now would barely allow time for Deng's successors to sort out their differences and present a unified front. Albright said that she would wait to hear from Beijing as to whether China's leaders want to proceed with the scheduled meeting. The Secretary, who was informed of Deng's death as she was discussing the reversion of Hong Kong to Chinese rule on July 1 with British Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind in London, struck a much firmer note than Clinton had. While noting neutrally that Deng was "a historic figure," Albright reminded reporters that his decision eight years ago to order the brutal crackdown on the pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananman Square was "very troublesome." She added: "It would obviously be a great advantage to the Chinese, as well as all of us, if there were a smooth transition." -- Murray Whyte