They are also more versatile than the cell phones we're accustomed to carrying in the U.S. They send instant text messages. They store and display information. They pay for things. Many point to these nifty little applications as proof that the Finns are the bellwethers of the wireless revolution.
In many ways, they are. The Finns' mobiles have already morphed into personal data tools, while the American market is just beginning to get a whiff of what that means. On the other hand, the advance that has everybody in the industry swooning these days a mobile phone with access to the Internet is in its infancy both in Finland and in the U.S., so in that respect we'll be taking the plunge together. Still, more than any other country in the world, this Arctic home to 5 million people, 3.5 million cell phones (and 1.4 million saunas) provides a glimpse of our wireless future.
Sometime around the summer of 2002, a mobile-less American soul will step into a Wireless Warehouse, sign a service contract with a carrier, walk out with a new handset and become the 143 millionth person in the U.S. to own a cell phone, pushing the national penetration rate to 50%, projects Paul Kagan Associates, a market-research firm. Today penetration is roughly 34%; subscriber numbers have tripled since December 1995, to 95 million as of midsummer, according to the Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association. And cell phones are no longer just part of the uniform for mobile professionals and tech geeks more and more are flying into the hands of mainstream consumers. "We're adding more than 46,000 new subscribers a day," says Bob Roche, CTIA's assistant vice president for policy and research.
The explosion of cell-phone use hasn't come without troubles. We still worry that pressing a cell phone to our head could cause brain cancer. Scientists who have studied the health risks associated with frequent exposure to radio waves have yet to prove such a link but still advise against excessive use the better-safe-than-sorry approach while continuing to research the effects; the FDA recently commissioned a new three-year study. Consumers should note that if there is a danger, headsets don't eliminate it; if a phone is doing damage while attached to your ear, it could also do damage when carried on your hip.
Such concerns notwithstanding, the industry has gone into overdrive. A rash of mergers and consolidations has given rise to three new national carriers: Verizon Wireless, VoiceStream Wireless and SBC Communications (a patchwork of regional networks that will add Bell South's U.S. wireless holdings to the mix later this year). Operators have teamed up with major Web portals such as Yahoo and Excite and are co-marketing wireless Internet services like mad. Hundreds of software firms are developing Net applications, while plans to deliver them to consumers are announced daily.
Meanwhile, handset manufacturers are ramping up production so high that it's causing an LCD screen shortage at Palm Pilot factories. Motorola, Samsung and others are churning out Internet-enabled models and report that the vast majority of new units sold have the capability. According to research firm IDC, in just 18 months, more of us will own a Net-connected cell phone than a Net-connected home PC. The question is, as cell phones reach critical mass if we really are on the verge of becoming a cell-phone nation how many of us will take the leap and actually use them for more than just making calls?