(January 1999) If the IBM 3083 and the field testing problems aren't enough to keep the FAA project managers (and the rest of us) up at night, there is more interesting news: The whole thing might crash anyway.
TIME Digital went to some Y2K consulting firms for a second opinion about the FAA's Y2K challenges. These are the people in the business of converting large-scale corporate computer systems, and they've got the experience in dealing with Y2K problems of t
his magnitude.
Asked about the FAA's situation, one high-ranking industry insider confided, "It is impossible for any business or organization to be completely Y2K-compliant. Our computer systems are so interconnected, both directly and through the basic infrastructure
that no one can isolate themselves from the problem." The pros, in other words, are not trying to solve the problem so much as contain it.
Will all the FAA computers turn into pumpkins and the planes begin falling from the sky seconds after the ball drops in Times Square next New Year's? No, says Constance C. Morella, chairwoman of the House Subcommittee on Technology. "If the mission-criti
cal components of our nation's aviation system are not year 2000-compliant, aircraft will simply not be authorized to leave the ground," she stated quite frankly last year.
This is the final word on the FAA's Y2K readiness. At some point before the rollover it will become obvious whether the system is going to work or not, and a decision will be made on allowing planes to take off. The FAA's own deadline for completing its Y
2K overhaul is currently June 30, although it's unlikely that any decision to ground planes will be made that early. Even in the worst case, the FAA crisis is going to be a costly inconvenience rather than a direct threat to the lives of the passengers.
So what should the intrepid traveler do over the holidays next winter as the fateful day approaches? First of all, avoid international travel. The U.S. State Department has issued an official advisement against international travel around the date rollov
er because of potential Y2K problems (such as the failure of ATM machines). At this point it might make sense to postpone the post-rollover trip to Paris until June 2000 at the earliest.
The domestic travel issue seems trickier. The FAA has a vested interest in keeping everyone calm and reassuring the rest of the government that they are going to get it right this time. On the other hand, the Y2K analysts and consultants stand to benefit
from more inflammatory Y2K press, because more panic translates into more wide-eyed and deep-pocketed clients. So what should we do? Plan on driving to Aunt Thelma's over Christmas next year until further notice from the FAA or the Feds.
