(January 1999) In Russia, the Y2K problem isn't about embedded
chips in microwaves, it's about nuclear bombs.
The specter of a Y2K-induced nuclear apocalypse
is so terrifying, and real, that earlier this year
Russia came to the U.S. and the IMF for help in
controlling its arsenal through the turn of the
millennium. The U.S. formed a delegation of
technicians to send to Russia, but before work
could begin the war in the Balkans heated up, and
diplomatic relations cooled down to Cold War
temperatures. Now all bets are off, and the clock
is ticking...
The Russian missiles have
safeguards preventing self-launch,
regardless of how badly their
computers crash, but the Russian
military early warning system, which provides
command and control information to the people
with their fingers on the button, is extremely
vulnerable to Y2K-related malfunction. In January,
the Russians raised Western eyebrows when they
threw up their hands and asked for technical
assistance from the United States (and money
from the IMF) to fix their Y2K-unready machines.
Needless to say, the vision of the Russian military
command staring at "cannot find file: strategic
missile data" on their frozen computer screens
while poised to launch missiles capable of
destroying all life on Earth was a big motivator for
the U.S. Plans were hatched to send a delegation
to Russia to discuss Y2K cooperation.
In mid-February a group of U.S. computer
specialists and military people, led by Assistant
Secretary of Defense Ted Warner, traveled to
Russia and reached a cooperative agreement with
the Russians to stave off disaster. The plan was to
send technical experts to assist the Russians in
updating their computer systems and to exchange
observers at key military posts over the date
change to avoid any misunderstandings.
But now, with Russian-U.S. relations at a
post-Cold War low because of the Balkan war, the
U.S. is struggling to show that this crucial
agreement has not suffered. When a Pentagon
spokesperson announced on April 19 that Y2K
cooperation with Russia was continuing as
planned, TIME Moscow correspondent Andrew
Meier took it with more than a grain of salt. "The
April 19 announcement was damage control by
the U.S. Any real progress in the Y2K cooperation
agreement would have been much more highly
publicized, and they would have mentioned
something about when the technical teams could
begin their work." So where does the agreement
stand? "As far as we can tell, the cooperation is
on hold."
Will the Russians back out for real? It seems
unlikely. For the Russians to prevent U.S. experts
from upgrading their computers would be like
kicking the firefighters out of the house for leaving
the toilet seat up. Unfortunately, rationality has
been in scarce supply ever since the war in the
Balkans began, and nobody knows what might
happen, especially if NATO deploys ground
troops. The future of the Balkan war is also
uncertain, and global nuclear security has been
added to the list of issues hinging on its outcome.
-NICK OREDSON
