Voters Unmoved by Terror Alerts
A new TIME poll finds little shift in voters preferences following orange alerts, Democratic convention. Kerry still has the edge
By
Friday, Aug. 06, 2004
Just as the Democratic Party convention gave the Kerry campaign very little "bounce" in the polls, so have last week's elevated terror alerts had only limited impact on an electorate already largely decided, according to the latest TIME poll. Senator John Kerry leads President Bush among likely voters by a margin of 48% to 43%, with Ralph Nader running at 4%. Kerry's lead has risen only slightly from immediately before the Democratic Convention, when polls found him edging out Bush by 46% - 43%, with Nader at 5%.
Most voters this year appear to have chosen early, and are unmoved by events — at least for now. Only 3% of likely voters currently report being undecided, but there's still some wiggle room — a further 17% of "decideds" say that they could change their mind before election day. But the absence of significant shifts thus far could mean that the 2004 race will be a fierce, hand-to-hand battle for every voter.
The polling numbers before and after the Democratic Convention, whose purpose was to introduce Kerry to the electorate, also suggest that the race remains largely a referendum on the presidency of George W. Bush. More than half the registered voters, 56%, say that their opinion of Bush is more important than their opinion of Kerry in shaping their decision, while only 32% now say that their opinion of John Kerry is more important. These numbers are virtually unchanged from the Time poll taken July 20-22, just prior to the Democratic Convention, in which 57% of respondents said their opinion of Bush was more decisive, while 31% answered that their opinion of Kerry mattered most.
What's stayed put over the past two weeks is much more significant than the minor changes. After a week of al-Qaeda terrorism alerts, the dominant issue for voters remains the economy — 27% cited the economy as their decisive issue, the same as two weeks ago. Terrorism is at 18%, exactly the same as two weeks ago. And the shifts have been negligible concerning other priority issues. Clearly, the elevated terrorism alert has neither elevated the issue in voter's minds nor boosted President Bush's numbers despite voters tendency to see Bush as the stronger candidate on dealing with terrorism.
Is Terrorism Fading as a Cutting Edge Issue?
The elevated terror alert last week had only limited impact on voters.
Only 21% report being "very worried" about a terrorist attack in the next few months, up only 4% from those who gave the same answer before the latest alert.
Less than 1 in 3 voters (31%) say that they follow the alert levels "very closely."
Only 1 in 4 voters (26%) say that they're being "more careful" because of the elevated terrorism alert, but 73% say that it's "business as usual."
Only 14% of voters agree "strongly" that they "want a President who is strong on terrorism" and "not much else matters" in their vote this year. Another 13% agree somewhat. Fully 70% of voters disagree. This is unchanged from July, before the terrorism alerts.
While a majority, 54%, believes that the Bush administration would not "use a terrorism alert for political reasons," 38% think that the alerts might be used for political reasons, with 7% undecided on this issue.
What impact might a terrorist strike have on the election?
The President continues to receive his highest approval ratings for his handling of the war on terrorism — 56% approve, 41% disapprove. This is up from 51% - 46% approval rating in July. However, the poll finds that absent a terrorist attack on our soil, terrorism may not be a cutting edge issue in the election.
A majority of voters would trust either Bush (61% trust, 35% not trust) or Kerry (62% trust, 32% not trust) to lead the war against terrorism. Both Bush and Kerry appear to pass the test.
If there were a terrorist strike before the November election, 66% say it would have little impact on their own vote. The remaining voters split on how an attack might affect their vote: 16% say an attack would make them more likely to vote for Kerry, while 15% say it would make them more likely to vote for Bush.
Voters split about evenly when asked what impact they believe a terrorist strike would have on the election outcome: 30% say it would improve Bush's chances of election, while 31% believe it would improve Kerry's chances.
Update on Kerry
A week's spotlight on Kerry in Boston did boost Kerry's overall favorability slightly, but most numbers remain flat compared to our pre-convention poll. Kerry's favorability ratings are up slightly, 53% favorable to 29% unfavorable, compared to 47% favorable -29% unfavorable before the convention. The undecideds are down to 18% from 24% pre-convention.
In head-to-head match ups with Bush in various areas, Kerry maintains his edge on:
handling the economy, 51% Kerry - 42% Bush, about the same as pre-Boston, 50% - 42%.
understanding the needs of people like yourself, 53% Kerry - 38% Bush, about the same as before, 52% Kerry - 40% Bush.
And Bush stayed ahead of Kerry on:
handling the situation in Iraq, 46% Bush - 44% Kerry, about the same as pre-convention, 48% Bush - 44% Kerry
providing leadership in difficult times,48% Bush - 43% Kerry, about the same as before, 49% Bush - 42% Kerry.
Kerry pulled even with Bush on "moral values," 44% would trust each candidate most. Bush had a seven point edge in July, 47% - 40%.
The Democratic convention's emphasis on "strength" and Kerry's military background may have helped their candidate pull slightly ahead of Bush on "being commander-in-chief of the armed forces" — 47% Kerry - 45% Bush.
Kerry has a slight edge on tax policy, 47% - 43%, considered by many to be a Bush strongpoint.
John Edwards' favorability has changed only slightly following the convention, with both his positives and negatives up a bit. He now stands at 48% favorable - 20% unfavorable, up from 45% - 16% pre-convention. His undecideds dropped to 31% from 39% before.
Update on Bush
Bush's ratings are little changed in past few weeks. His overall job approval ratings continues to hover at the 50% level (50% approve, 46% disapprove), the same as our previous poll's finding of 50%-47%. His weak spots remain the economy and Iraq.
A majority of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy — 54%, compared with 43% who approve. Our previous poll found 52 percent disapproved, while 44% approved.
On Iraq, 45% approve of the President's handling of the situation, while 52% disapprove, compared to 41% approve - 55% disapprove last time.
Bush's ratings on handling of the war on terrorism are up a bit, with 56% approving and 41% disapproving, up from 51% approve - 46% disapprove.
And in the overall sentiment that weighs against President Bush's re-election chances, little change has been recorded:
A majority of voters still believe the country is going "off on the wrong track" — 51%, compared with 44% who answered that it was headed in the right direction. July's answers were 52% wrong track, 42% right direction.
A majority maintain that it's time for someone else to be president — 54%, while 42% maintain President Bush deserves to be re-elected. That's a one-point shift from our last poll, in which the breakdown was 53% - 43%.
Voters are evenly split, 47% - 47% on whether the United States was right or wrong to go to war with Iraq, where July's poll found a slight majority 49%-46% answering that it was wrong to invade.
Finally, Dick Cheney's appearances on the campaign trail in recent weeks have had little impact on his favorability ratings. He's now at 37% favorable - 43% unfavorable. In July, he stood at 34% favorable - 40% unfavorable.
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone August 3-5, 2004 among a random sample of 1,202 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1,001 reported registered voters and 758 likely voters. The margin of error for registered and likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing.
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