Presidential Race Deadlocked
Press Release: TIME poll finds Bush and Kerry in a statistical dead heat, with the President's approval rating at 49 percent
By
DIANA PEARSON
Saturday, Oct. 16, 2004
Kerry Seemed More Presidential During Debates,
But Bush Still Viewed as Stronger Commander-in-Chief
The race for the White House remains deadlocked, 48% for George W. Bush and 46% for John Kerry, among likely voters, according to a TIME Poll taken Oct. 14-15, 2004.
Almost 1 in 3 voters (30%) said the debates made them more likely to vote for Kerry, compared to only 17% more likely to vote for Bush.
Registered voters gave Kerry the overall debate win 57% - 27% over Bush. Bush lost the final debate Wednesday by a 9 point margin, 37% - 28%. (Bush lost the first debate by 36 points, 59% - 23%.)
Bush's job approval has continued to slip since the first debate and now stands at 49% approve - 49% disapprove. This marks second week in a row that Bush has dipped under 50% approval rating in the TIME magazine poll.
In the debates, Kerry bested Bush on:
Took positions closer to your own: Kerry 54% - Bush 39%
Understands the issues: Kerry 49% - Bush 40%
Seemed more presidential: Kerry 49% - Bush 44%
Being more believable: Kerry 48% - Bush 44%.
The candidates tied on which was more likeable: Kerry 47% - Bush 45%. Kerry now rates 48% favorable - 37% unfavorable while Bush is 49%-40%.
The economy is the most important issue for more than 1 in 4 registered voters, 26%. Kerry has opened a 6 point lead over Bush, 49% - 43%, on handling of the economy: Just before the first debate, the candidates were even, 44% for each.
The second most important issue is terrorism, which has slipped a bit from as high as 23% during the Republican convention to 22% now. Iraq has been steady at 20%, about the same since July.
On domestic issues, Kerry has widened his lead over Bush since mid-September.
Health care: Kerry has widened his lead to 13 points, 51% - 38%. Before the debates, Kerry had an 8 point edge.
Understanding people's needs: Kerry is up by 7 points, 49% - 42%. Before the debates, he was up by just 4 points.
Bush still leads, but more narrowly, on terrorism and war issues:
Commander-in-Chief: Bush is ahead by 10 points, 51% - 41%, but this has narrowed from a 16 point advantage before the debates.
Providing leadership in difficult times: Bush leads by 8 points, 52% - 40%. Before the debates, he dominated by as much as 21 points.
War on terrorism: Bush tops Kerry 51% - 40%, after leading Kerry by as much as 18 points before the debates.
Americans are split along party lines on:
Gun control: Almost 2 in 3 Kerry supporters (64%) favor stricter gun control, compared to only 34% of Bush backers. A lopsided 73% favor reinstating the ban on assault weapons that expired recently without being reauthorized.
Embryonic stem cell research: Most Kerry supporters, 70%, favor allowing federal funds to develop new stem cell lines. Only 32% of Bush backers support federal funding for new lines. Voters overwhelmingly favor, by 69% - 22%, using discarded embryos for stem cell research. They are more divided on whether federal funds should be used to develop more embryonic stem cell lines Half of voters, 50%, favor federal funding to develop new lines, while 32% favor Bush's plan of limiting funding only to stem cell lines already developed.
Americans are also split along party lines on:
Abortion: Almost 6 in 10 Kerry backers (59%) favor abortion for any reason during the first three months of pregnancy, compared to only 28% of Bush supporters. Voters divide almost evenly on whether a woman should be able to get an abortion for any reason during the first three months of pregnancy (44%), or whether abortion should be permitted only for limited reasons, such as rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother (45%). Only 9% oppose abortion under any circumstances.
Same-sex marriage:
58% of voters oppose gay marriage, while only 35% would allow it. However, 54% of voters also oppose a federal constitutional amendment banning same-sex couples from marrying, with only 41% supporting an amendment.
Only 24% of Kerry backers favor a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, compared to 60% of Bush supporters.
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone October 14-15, 2004 among a random sample of 1131 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1000 reported registered voters and 865 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.
Likely voters reported party identifications are: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 21% Independents.
Registered voters party affiliations are: 37% Democrat, 32% Republican, 23% Independent.
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found at: www.srbi.com.
Contact: Diana_Pearson@timeinc.com, 212-522-0833
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