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Arizona
Electoral Votes: 10 (+2 since 2000)
2000 Results: Bush 51%, Gore 45%, Nader 3%
Recent Polls
KAET-TV: Bush 47%, Kerry 42%
(Oct. 19-21; margin of error +/-4.1%)
Arizona Republic: Bush 47%, Kerry 40%
(Oct. 18-19; margin of error +/-4%)
Population: White 63.8%, Hispanic 25.3%, Native American 4.5%, Black 2.9%, Asian 1.7%
Urban Population: 88.2%
Rural: 11.8%
Median Income: $40,558
Unemployment: 4.4%, as of August
Forecast: Solidy Bush, though Kerry could win with strong Hispanic support.
Bush won Arizona by a solid 6% last time, and this is the only state to only vote for a Democratic presidential candidate once since 1952, but the Kerry campaign isn't giving up completely. Arizona is unpredictable. It's home to some of the most conservative Republican politicians in the country, but also to John McCain and gay Republican congressman Jim Kolbe. Almost 80% of the voters live in the Phoenix and Tucson areas. Voters are libertarian and anti-tax, but they also supported Clinton in 1996 because of his environmental record. Kerry will be hoping for a large Hispanic and Native American turnout, while Bush campaigns with McCain and portrays his opponent as a big-government-loving liberal. Bush held a double-digit lead through all of September, so a Kerry comeback is looking more doubtful. The Senator must agree, since he stopped advertising there.
Counties to Watch: Maricopa, home to 60% of the votes cast in 2000; Pinal; Navajo
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