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Arkansas
Electoral Votes: 6 (no change since 2000)
2000 Results: Bush 51%, Gore 46%, Nader 1%
Recent Polls
Mason-Dixon: Bush 51%, Kerry 43%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error ± 4.0%)
SurveyUSA: Bush 51%, Kerry 45%
(Oct. 23-25; margin of error ± 3.9%)
Population: White 78.6%, Black 15.6%, Hispanic 3.2%
Urban Population: 52.4%
Rural: 47.6%
Median Income: $32,182
Unemployment: 5.4%, as of August
Forecast: The Democrats have abandoned Dixie for now—except for Bill Clinton.
This is the most Democratic state in the Old South, but that's not saying much. Bush was able to beat Gore here by painting him as a culturally liberal creature of Washington. Doing the same thing to a Massachusetts senator should be easier. But Kerry does have a shot here. Arkansas never saw the '90s boom that Georgia and North Carolina enjoyed, and the recent recession hurt manufacturing even more. The eastern and southern parts of the state are still reliably Democratic, and black voters should turn out in high numbers for Kerry. His best bet is to focus on economics, health care and Iraq. Bush's strategy should be to stress cultural issues like gay marriage and encourage a high turnout in the northwestern third of the state—reliable G.O.P. country. Bush has held the lead here all year, so it's unlikely he'll lose unless things change dramatically. Kerry stopped advertising in the Fall. But Bill Clinton keeps telling the campaign not to give up, and he'll be stumping in his home state right before the election.
Counties to Watch: Craighead, Conway, Sevier
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