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Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7 (no change since 2000)
2000 Results: Gore 48.54%, Bush 48.22%, Nader 2%
Recent Polls
FOX News: Bush 48%, Kerry 44%, Nader 1%
(Oct. 30-31; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Zogby International: Kerry 50%, Bush 44%
(Oct. 28-31; margin of error +/-4.1%)
SurveyUSA: Kerry 49%, Bush 49%
(Oct. 28-30; margin of error +/-3.9%)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Bush 48%, Kerry 46%
(Oct. 27-30; margin of error +/-3.0%)
Mason-Dixon: Bush 49%, Kerry 44%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Des Moines Register: Kerry 48%, Bush 45%, Nader 1%
(Oct. 25-29; margin of error +/-3.5%)
Population: White 92.6%, Hispanic 2.8%, Black 2.1%, Asian 1.2%
Urban Population: 61.1%
Rural: 38.9%
Median Income $39,469
Unemployment: 4.5%, as of August
Forecast: Total tossup—It's looking harder for Kerry to replicate Gore's narrow win.
Even in a nation with as much political variety as America, Iowa is unique. Voters tend to be socially conservative but economically populist. Opposition to the war in Iraq was particularly loud there. But despite these contradictions, Iowa has been a pretty good, if not perfect, bellwether state. Iowa backed Reagan twice and Clinton twice. Then in 2000, Gore won by just 4,000 votes, his second-smallest margin. Farm issues are important, but a majority of the population now works in other industries. The state has a high senior citizen population, so Medicare will be an important issue. Kerry's biggest challenge may be to do better with rural voters than Gore did. The eastern third of the state, including Davenport and Cedar Rapids, leans Democratic. The central third splits its vote, with Des Moines supporting Dems and the rural counties voting Republican. The western, less-populated third is solidly G.O.P. Bush surged ahead in polls after his convention, but Kerry tightened the race in the last week of September. Bush is looking to take the shrinking number of rural voters who still lean Democratic and also win Catholic voters in the Eastern part of the state.
Counties to Watch: Cedar, Tama, Jasper, Palo Alto, Warren
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