 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10 (no change since 2000)
2000 Results: Gore 48%, Bush 46%, Nader 5%
Recent Polls
Zogby International: Kerry 49%, Bush 47%
(Oct. 28-31; margin of error +/-4.1%)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Kerry 52%, Bush 44%
(Oct. 28-30; margin of error +/-3.0%)
St. Paul Pioneer Press/Mason-Dixon: Bush 48%, Kerry 47%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Minnesota Star-Tribune: Kerry 49%, Bush 41%
(Oct. 26-29; margin of error +/-3.5%)
Population: White 88.2%, Black 3.4%, Hispanic 2.9%, Asian 2.9%, Native American 1.1%
Urban Population: 70.9%
Rural: 29.1%
Median Income: $47,111
Unemployment: 4.8%, as of August
Forecast: What was once a liberal bastion is now a battleground.
The last time Minnesota voted Republican for President was 1972. The state has a long tradition of progressive politics (this is the home of Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Paul Wellstone), strong civic participation (voter turnout was almost 70% in 2000) plus economic prosperity (it's home to Target and the Mall of America). But in 2000, George W. Bush only lost by 2% to Al Gore. A younger generation of Minnesota voters seems more independent and less connected to the parties. Jesse "the Body" Ventura won the governor's office by appealing to them with moderate to conservative stands on economic issues and libertarian stands on social issues. The Twin Cities and the surrounding counties of Hennepin and Ramsey—home to a third of the state's voters—are solidly Democratic. Each voted for Gore by more than 15%. The rural, Western farm counties and the North Woods counties went for Bush. The swing voters live in the exurban counties, the belt of towns outside the suburbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Bush won that area by 50%-44%.
Kerry has been ahead all year, but only by a few points. It's part of a Bush strategy to take Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota—three upper Midwest states with more rural voters. Winning all three would more than make up for a loss in Ohio.
Counties to Watch: Anoka, Dakota, Washington, Winona
|
|
|
|
|
|
