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Missouri
Electoral Votes: 11 (no change since 2000)
2000 Results: Bush 50%, Gore 47%, Nader 2%
Recent Polls
Mason-Dixon: Bush 49%, Kerry 44%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Kansas City Star: Bush 49%, Kerry 45%
(Oct. 22-26; margin of error +/-4.1%)
Population: White 83.8%, Black 11.2%, Hispanic 2.1%, Asian 1.1%
Urban Population: 69.4%
Rural: 30.6%
Median Income: $37,934
Unemployment: 5.5%, as of August
Forecast: A longtime tossup, but it may now be too socially conservative for Dems.
In Clay County, part of the Northern half of Kansas City, just over 80,000 people voted for president in 2000. George Bush won 39,083 votes; Al Gore won 39,084. That's pretty typical for Missouri, which has been a presidential bellwether for half a century. Missouri used to split its vote because half the state was part of the South and half was part of the Midwest. That's changed in the past decade. Now like most of the country, the metropolitan areas vote Democratic and the rest of the state votes Republican (Gore won just eight counties outside St. Louis and Kansas City). But unlike most of the Midwest, Missouri broke for George W. Bush in 2000 because less of the population lives in those metropolitan areas than in Illinois or Minnesota. So for Kerry to win there, he has to keep Kansas City and St. Louis voters in his corner and appeal to rural and exurban voters with economic issues. Bush will stick to social issues. In July, Kerry stopped running ads in the state and the Democratic National Committee followed suit in September. Is the state firmly in Bush's corner? The first post-debate poll showed Kerry behind by just 2 points, but the Senator has moved on.
Counties to Watch: Clay, Boone, Jefferson, Saline, Washington
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