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Ohio
Electoral Votes: 20 (-1 since 2000)
2000 Results: Bush 50%, Gore 46%, Nader 3%
Recent Polls
FOX News: Bush 50%, Kerry 47%
(Oct. 30-31; margin of error +/-3.0%)
Zogby International: Bush 48%, Kerry 44%
(Oct. 28-31; margin of error +/-4.1)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Kerry 50%, Bush 46%
(Oct. 28-31; margin of error +/-3.0%)
Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 49.2%
(Oct. 27-31; margin of error +/-3.3%)
Mason-Dixon: Bush 48%, Kerry 46%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Population: White 84%, Black 11.4%, Hispanic 1.9%, Asian 1.2%
Urban Population: 77.3%
Rural: 22.7%
Median Income: $40,956
Unemployment: 6.3%, as of August
Forecast: Kerry holds a very narrow lead.
In October 2000, Al Gore stopped advertising here and cut back spending. Most political observers had decided Ohio was leaning more Republican than in past decades. But on election day, Gore lost by less than four points. Kerry's been spending much of his time and money here and it seems to be paying off. But fights over election rules have already broken out.
The cities of north and east Ohio—Toledo, Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron—vote Democratic. With the exception of downtown Columbus, downtown Cincinnati and some coal counties on the West Virginia border, the rest of the state leans Republican. What has made Ohio different from its Midwestern neighbors—Michigan, Illinois and Pennsylvania all backed Gore—is that it is more culturally conservative. But the economy has suffered slightly more in Ohio than most of the rest of the nation during the past four years. Manufacturing jobs have disappeared, and not just the big factory union jobs, but the smaller manufacturing jobs that had increased in the '90s.
Counties to Watch: Clark, Columbiana, Franklin, Harrison, Montgomery, Stark
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