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Oregon
Electoral Votes: 7 (no change since 2000)
2000 Results: Gore 46.96%, Bush 46.52%, Nader 5%
Recent Polls
Mason-Dixon: Kerry 50%, Bush 44%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error +/-4.0%)
American Research Group: Kerry 50%, Bush 46%
(Oct. 25-27; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Population: White 83.5%, Hispanic 8%, Asian 2.9%, Black 1.6%
Urban Population: 78.7%
Rural: 21.3%
Median Income: $40,916
Unemployment: 7.4%, as of August
Forecast: It will be close, but Kerry's almost got it clinched.
Oregon is just as divided as the rest of the country, but the key issue here is the environment. In 2000, Gore won the state by a much more narrow margin than Bill Clinton did. One reason was the 77,357 votes Ralph Nader won. Another was that more libertarian voters in rural parts of the state were ticked off at Clinton's environmental policies. Gore won Portland and its suburbs, with their high tech businesses, and the University town of Eugene, but lost the farm country of the Willamette Valley, the logging communities in the southwest corner, and the vast interior of the state to the east of the Cascade mountains. The economy might be crucial also—the high tech industry has been hit particularly hard by the recession and unemployment was over 8% two years ago. It's still above the national average. In the final days before election day, Kerry's lead looked more and more certain, but the Bush campaign denies it's throwing in the towel.
Counties to Watch: Clackamas, Tillamook, Washington
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