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Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21 (-2 since 2000)
2000 Results: Gore 51%, Bush 46%, Nader 2%
Recent Polls
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Bush 50%, Kerry 46%
(Oct. 28-31; margin of error +/-4.1%)
Zogby International: Kerry 50%, Bush 45%
(Oct. 28-31; margin of error +/-4.1%)
Quinnipiac University: Bush 47%, Kerry 47%
(Oct. 27-31; margin of error +/-3.3%)
Mason-Dixon: Kerry 48%, Bush 46%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Population: White 84.1%, Black 9.8%, Hispanic 3.2%, Asian 1.8%
Urban Population: 77%
Rural: 23%
Median Income: $40,106
Unemployment: 5.6%, as of August
Forecast: Kerry has a slight lead, but Bush wants this state bad.
With less than a week left, most polls give Kerry a narrow lead and some Republicans are speculating it's over in the Keystone state. But the Bush campaign hasn't publicly thrown in the towel, and a Los Angeles Times poll showed a tied race the Thursday before election day.
Pennsylvania is a swing state because it straddles the East Coast and the heartland. The Philadelphia area, which accounts for a third of voters, is liberal on social issues. The Pittsburgh area is more Midwestern—conservative on social issues, but still liberal and pro-union on economics enough to narrowly back Democrats. In the middle of the state lies what some call the T—from Lancaster and Dutch country in the south, up through the center of the state and the Alleghenies, to the rural counties that run along the New York state border—which is culturally conservative. Even Kerry's staff has admitted the Bush team has a better operation in the Keystone state than it did in 2000. But Democrats helped sign up 90% of 85,000 newly registered voters in Philadelphia. Karl Rove pledged Bush was not giving up. Most analysts see Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida as all-important—win 2 of 3 and the White House is yours.
Counties to Watch: Lehigh, Mercer, Monroe
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