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West Virginia
Electoral Votes: 5 (no change since 2000)
2000 Results: Bush 52%, Gore 46%, Nader 2%
Recent Polls
Mason-Dixon: Bush 51%, Kerry 43%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Mason Dixon: Bush 49%, Kerry 44%
(Oct. 15-18; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Population: White 94.6%, Black 3.1%
Urban Population: 46.1%
Rural: 53.9%
Median Income: $29,696
Unemployment: 5.5%, as of August
Forecast: Bush's biggest coup in 2000 thanks to guns, God and coal. Kerry shows little chance of winning it back.
When George W. Bush won West Virginia in 2000, it shocked everyone. The state had not voted for a Republican, except in landslide elections, since 1928. But even though less than 4% of the population works in coal mining these days, this is still a coal state. The Clinton Administration had tried to put tighter controls on strip mining, which often destroys hills and pollutes rivers. Bush opposed it and promised to encourage coal consumption. That combined with Gore's bad image among gun owners moved the state solidly to Bush. Kerry comes into the race with a strong environmental record as well, which could hurt. But Bush must also convince voters that the situation in Iraq—plenty of active duty and reserve troops come from this state—and the economy are changing for the better. By October, Kerry had stopped advertising and canceled an Oct. 16th visit. Looks like coal country will stay Bush country this year. One twist though—South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb, a G.O.P. elector for the state, has said that he doesn't approve of Bush's policies and might cast a blank ballot or vote for another Republican.
Counties to Watch: Harrison, Jefferson, Summers, Wayne
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