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Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10 (-1 since 2000)
2000 Results: Gore 47.83%, Bush 47.61%, Nader 3.62%
Recent Polls
FOX News: Bush 48%, Kerry 45%, Nader 1%
(Oct. 30-31; margin of error +/-3.0%)
Zogby International: Kerry 51%, Bush 44%
(Oct. 28-31; margin of error +/-4.1%)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Bush 52%, Kerry 44%
(Oct. 27-30; margin of error +/-3.0%)
Mason-Dixon: Kerry 48%, Bush 46%
(Oct. 27-29; margin of error +/-4.0%)
Population: White 87.3%, Black 5.6%, Hispanic 3.6%, Asian 1.6%
Urban Population: 68.3%
Rural: 31.7%
Median Income: $43,791
Unemployment: 4.8%, as of August
Forecast: One of the last states where rural voters support Democrats. Or do they?
Kerry enjoyed a lead here for most of the summer, but Bush took it away in August and has held on to it since. If he takes it on November 2nd, it will be a big upset. It's part of a Bush strategy to take Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota—three upper Midwest states with more rural voters. Winning all three would more than make up for a loss in Ohio.
Wisconsin is the only state in 2000 where Al Gore did better in rural areas than in metropolitan areas. But the state has a tradition of being different. Voters have backed progressive liberals like Russ Feingold, moderate Republicans like Tommy Thompson and fire-eating conservatives like Joe McCarthy. The state economy did well in the '90s, focusing on small-scale manufacturing, but this is still the No. 1 cheese state and No. 2 dairy state. Bush felt he could win here in 2000, made a big push and almost won, and plans to give it another try this time. While downtown Milwaukee is Democratic, its suburbs to the north and west are staunchly G.O.P. Republicans control the eastern half of the state from Milwaukee up to Green Bay. Democrats control Madison and the rural farm country of the Western half.
Counties to Watch: Dunn, Grant, Juneau, Lincoln, Marquette
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