ARMS CONTROL
Nuclear Thaw
Will nuclear weapons be used in combat this year? No, but cross your fingers. The most likely nuclear flashpoints — over Taiwan and Kashmir — seem likely to die down. But diplomats will squabble plenty about nukes: who should have them, how to contain their spread and, most divisively, whether to build defenses against them.
Both the U.S. and Russia will take steps to outdo each other in slashing warhead stockpiles. That's the good news. Now the bad: the incoming Bush administration will push plans to roll out a national missile defense (NMD) system. The Russians will bluster and threaten to rebuild their arsenal. They will back down if the U.S. proposes a system that shoots down missiles in their "boost phase" — and offers to share the technology with Moscow. America's nervous European allies, except France, will back a deal and hail the salvation of arms control.
But China will ratchet up its nuclear program in response to NMD. India and Pakistan may follow suit, though a nuclear confrontation is unlikely given both countries' slow progress toward building delivery systems. In the absence of a deal with the U.S., North Korea will seek to upgrade its arsenal while exporting missile technology to such outlaws as Iraq, Iran and Libya. Count on this much: the world won't get any safer.
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The Year Ahead
Politics
- United States
- Europe
- Asia
- Africa
- The Middle East
- Peacekeeping
- Arms Control
- Viewpoint: Globalization, the Sequel
Business
Technology
Arts & Media
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