After The Fall
If the price of freedom is eternal vigilance, then the world has a lot to be wary of in the year to come. here’s a look at some trends to watch out for in geopolitics
By SCOTT MacLEOD/Cairo
Arabs have an old tradition of hospitality, but George W. Bush should not expect a hearty welcome if he takes his war on terror to the Middle East. Crushing al-Qaeda’s base has dealt a severe blow to Arab terrorists operating out of Afghanistan, yet moving the front line to the heart of the Arab world risks a serious backlash. And the Administration should note that victory depends as much on the battle for Muslim minds as on defeating terrorists militarily.
To win, the U.S. must meet three challenges ...
Challenge No. 1:
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Washington needs the help of friendly Arab governments, like those in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. But America’s allies are upset by U.S. acquiescence in what they see as Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians in the 16-month-old Aqsa intifadeh. The U.S. will try to calm the conflict, but overt cooperation with Arab states will not be easy as long as Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza continues.
Challenge No. 2:
Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi leader is at the top of Washington’s hit list. The problem, again, is that any successful move against Saddam would need the political and military cooperation of Arab allies. As much as they loathe Saddam, Arab leaders are afraid to support a plan to take him out. Ordinary Arabs blame U.S.-led sanctions for causing starvation and disease in Iraq. Moreover, they ask, why pick on Iraq while no action is taken against Israel? A war on Iraq could ignite domestic unrest in the Islamic world.
Challenge No. 3:
Defining terrorism. The U.S. put the Palestinian group Hamas and Lebanon’s Hizballah on its black list, but Arabs see these anti-Israel groups more as freedom fighters than as terrorists. Islamic scholars meeting last month in Mecca came up with a terrorism definition of their own: "all acts of aggression committed by individuals, groups or states against human beings, including attacks on their religion, life, intellect or property." That’s a sweeping explication which could easily include the U.S. bombing of Afghanistan or Israel’s demolition of Palestinian homes and exclude the activities of Hamas and Hizballah. One reason for optimism, though: Arab governments want to crack down on terrorists just as much as the Americans do.
Long before Sept. 11, they effectively fought homegrown extremists who threatened their own survival. That’s why so many terrorists fled into exile — and why they won’t be very welcome back home either.
Kashmir — the next jihad?>>
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