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Decision Time
High unemployment gives Schr–derís challenger a shot in Septemberís election
By CHARLES P. WALLACE/Berlin
One statistic will reverberate throughout this year’s German national election campaign: the unemployment rate. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder made it an issue when he promised four years ago that the jobless number would fall to 3.5 million by the time of the election on Sept. 22.
It’s clear he won’t be able to keep that promise; most economists believe the number will rise above the politically unpalatable 4 million by spring. Schröder’s opponent, Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber, will make the Social Democrat’s stewardship of the economy the main issue.
Schröder is likely to blame the slump on the world economy, while Stoiber, leader of Germany’s most prosperous state, calls for tax cuts and labor-market reforms. Crime is pretty low compared to other European countries, but law and order candidates — like Stoiber — are popular.
On immigration, Schröder’s government has proposed opening the country to highly qualified foreign workers to keep German industry running. But Stoiber has campaigned for increased training of Germans rather than more immigration.
In short, crime, immigration and the state of the economy combine to give Stoiber a fighting chance.
On second thought ... A disastrous showing by the Green Party, the Social Democrat’s coalition ally, could wreck Schröder’s chances regardless of the economy.
Places to Watch
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