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The Velvet Authoritarianism
By PAUL QUINN-JUDGE/Moscow
What to expect from Russia this year? The consolidation of a new "national security state," in which the intelligence and security community shapes the Kremlin’s view of the world.
The image projected will reflect President Vladimir Putin’s fantasy of the Soviet Cheka secret police — devoted, austere, incorruptible. This will not be a roll-back to the bad old days, but rather a new velvet authoritarianism: some people who cross the regime will lose their jobs, occasionally their livelihoods.
Some may spend a few terrible months or years in Russia’s antiquated prison system but will eventually be pardoned. The state will remain hostile to criticism, particularly by whistle blowers and the media. Intimidation of TV and radio stations and some newspapers will continue in the regions, with local officials applying the techniques successfully used in Moscow — pressure through pliable shareholders or the courts.
Expect too a continuing struggle with some of the political élite who helped bring Putin to power but who now are alienated from the new regime — particularly the Yeltsin "family." Putin may find it harder to neutralize them than to intimidate the media, since the Family has its own power base.
On second thought ... The secret police may prove no more capable of solving the country’s problems, or keeping their hands out of the state’s till. In that case, it’s back to drawing board.
France — Head to Head
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