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Looking for Solutions
The other players on this year's European stage
 Portugal
If recent local election results are to be believed, voters look set to put the Social Democrats back in power in the March 17 general election. "Power," however, may not be the right word. Portugal’s proportional-representation system could once again deliver the sort of hung parliament that has stymied government in the past. Public discontent rather than parliamentary opposition may have brought down the Guterres government, but Portugal’s coming political battles look to be fought out in an uneasily balanced parliament faced with anemic economic growth and rising inflation. Whatever party wins in March will face slow growth, growing inflation and increasing voter apathy.
Poland
2002 may prove to be a banner year — for ski jumping. World champion Adam Malysz is poised to soar above his competitors at the Winter Olympics. Poland’s economy, meanwhile, will be lucky if it gets off the ground. GDP growth might just manage 1%, unemployment has topped 17%, and the roughly $15 billion budget deficit is the worst since communism collapsed in 1989. The new left-wing government is already being forced to introduce severe spending cuts and soon will have to broach with voters the politically sensitive concessions required to meet the criteria for E.U. membership — and populist opposition parties like Samoobrona are circling for the kill.
Montenegro
Reports of the death of Yugoslavia, which gained currency more than 20 years ago with the passing of Tito, may finally come true. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic has vowed to lead his republic out of the federation with Serbia, ending a union forged in 1918. Djukanovic says he will call a referendum on independence this spring. What happens next is murkier. Polls show Montenegrins are pretty evenly split on whether to stay or go. Belgrade is also divided. Politicians in both capitals may choose to extend the impasse a while longer, though, as a convenient distraction from economic reform and other politically sensitive domestic concerns.
Cyprus
The 27-year-old standoff between Greek and Turkish Cypriots may be resolved. Aging rivals Rauf Denktash, 77, and Glafcos Clerides, 82 — leaders of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, respectively — are both being urged to make concessions; the Greek Cypriots to speed their application for E.U. membership and the Turkish Cypriots so as not to be left behind economically. Ankara also worries that if the Athens-backed Republic of Cyprus enters the E.U. on its own, that could end Turkey’s chances of joining the club. But the new urgency works both ways: excessive posturing as the deadline looms could still provoke a crisis.
Troubled regimes
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