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PHOTOGRAPH BY KARIM SAHIB/AFP
IRAQ:
At a factory near Baghdad, workers bake bricks underground, by old-fashioned means. But a high-tech war may be on the way
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 Think of this as a tip sheet for a scary new year, a deeply reported look at where the world is heading |
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By ERIC POOLEY/Editor |
Posted Sunday, Dec. 8, 2002; 2.02 p.m. GMT
Here's a bold prediction: the U.S. won't go to war in Iraq. George W. Bush's chest thumping will force Saddam Hussein to begin handing over his arsenal, and in that moment of weakness he'll fall to a coup. There'll be dancing in the streets of Baghdad. World oil prices will drop and stock markets will rally. Even the German economy will start to pick up.
Like that one? Here's another, just as bold but far less rosy. The U.S. does attack Iraq, and its ground forces get bogged down; there's a terrible battle in the streets of Baghdad. Iraqi scuds take out some Kuwaiti oil fields. The price of crude spikes, and Saddam disappears — joining Osama bin Laden on the list of America's most wanted. While the U.S. hunts feverishly for Saddam, al-Qaeda pulls off the most devastating terror strike since Sept. 11.
Which scenario is more likely? Take your pick, depending on your mood. Bold predictions are a fool's game. The experts map the alternatives and assign probabilities to each, then reality sneaks up from behind with a plot no one saw coming. That's why, for this Forecast 2003 special issue, our writers and correspondents have tried to avoid splashy but hollow prognostication. We don't pretend to know everything that's coming, but we have been tracking the forces that will shape what does. So think of this as a tip sheet for a scary new year, a deeply reported look at where the world is heading, not just in the realms of war and terror, but in politics, society, culture and the arts.
Some of the forces shaping 2003 are clear — and cold. It now appears certain, for example, that the loose coalition of terrorists known as al-Qaeda will be waging its hit-and-run war for years to come. Scattered around the globe after the U.S. and its allies shut down the training camps of Afghanistan, the bombers have proved themselves capable of punctuating our lives with bursts of sudden, senseless death — anywhere on the planet at any time.
The success and pace of these terror strikes and the swiftness of any American-led action in Iraq will have a great deal to say about whether 2003 brings economic recovery or just more of the slump. But nagging uncertainty is no fun. Vigilance is exhausting. And so it's also a safe bet that people will find ways to pack up their troubles and smile. Some will escape into hedonistic excess; others into the transporting pleasures of music and dance, fiction and film; and many more into the sustaining comforts of faith, hope and love. Hugs will be huge in 2003.
One force that surely won't be taking any breaks next year is the pace of change. While we were preparing this issue, marveling at a new drug injection that promises to melt away love handles, British doctors announced a plan to perform full facial transplants. (Wasn't that the plot of the new Bond movie?) An Italian fertility specialist claimed to have cloned a human, with the baby due in January. (Experts were deeply skeptical.) What's next? We can't tell you for certain. But in the pages that follow, we'll give you a good idea — and even a few bold predictions. Maybe that's foolish, but we needed to have some fun.
After all, we're human.
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S O C I E T Y
Islam In Europe
An inside look at how Europe's Muslims adapt to secular society — and vice-versa
T H E A T E R
Boney's Part
A stage extravaganza, a TV mini-series and a clutch of films put Napoleon in the spotlight again
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E U R O P E
Outta Here
A faltering economy and Schröder's policies have companies fleeing Germany
P O L I T I C S
Wages Of Spin Cherie Blair didn't know she was doing business with a con man, but it's Tony and New Labour who may pay the price |
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