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Posted Sunday, Dec. 8, 2002; 2.02 p.m. GMT
KASHMIR
An honest election gives hope to this war-plagued land. In October voters in Indian-administered Kashmir threw out the central government-allied National Conference and installed a coalition administration of the Congress Party and the moderate People's Democratic Party (PDP), with PDP leader Mufti Mohammed Sayeed as Chief Minister. Delhi won credibility by not rigging the poll as it had done in previous years — the crooked 1987 election sparked the conflict that has since cost 35,000 lives. And with a higher-than-expected turnout of 44%, India undermined Pakistan's justification for its support of the Islamic insurgency, which began to look less like a freedom struggle against a repressive regime and more a straightforward tussle over territory. The result will also force Delhi to back off from its previous intransigence over talks and finally address the concerns of Kashmir's newly elected leaders, who want either full autonomy or outright independence. But with India still refusing all talks with Pakistan and Pakistan continuing to support the militants, the guns won't fall silent anytime soon.
SRI LANKA
Asia's longest-running and bloodiest civil war finally comes to an end next year. Peace talks between the Tamil Tigers and the Sinhalese-dominated government surprised everyone by their friendliness. The Tigers dropped their demand for a separate state in exchange for substantial autonomy. Still to be resolved are precise power-sharing arrangements for a new federal Sri Lanka and disarmament, as well as concerns over the safety and rights of minority Muslims in Tiger areas. Both sides have their own reasons to end a war that has cost 65,000 lives over the past two decades. The Tigers have found their ability to raise funds and smuggle in arms from abroad severely curtailed since Sept. 11. And for the government, the financial burden of the war weighs heavily on the economy, particularly its depressed tourism industry.
NEPAL
The fairytale kingdom plunges ever deeper into the abyss. After five years of sporadic resistance, Maoist rebels have begun a full-scale war, staging massed attacks on police and army outposts in which they leave no man alive. The death toll has rocketed to more than 7,000, and the Maoists now control a third of Nepal and attack at will anywhere in the country. In October, King Gyanendra sacked the government of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and installed an interim administration charged with resolving the crisis. New premier Lokendra Bahadur Chand offered to hold peace talks, but refused to consider abolishing the monarchy, a key rebel demand. Maoist leader Prachanda ("Awesome") replied he too was willing to start talks, but insisted on a republic. With no compromise in sight, expect a lot more body bags.
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