MASSIMO SAMBUCETTI/AP

SMALL STEPS: Struggling with symptoms of Parkinson's disease and an arthritic right knee, a frail John Paul II is seen at Holy Week mass in 2002

21st Century Pope

Papal succession is a hot — but whispered — topic among Catholics of all ranks. Here's a tip sheet on the strongest candidates

By JEFF ISRAELY

Posted Sunday, Dec. 8, 2002; 2.02 p.m. GMT
Pope John Paul II is getting set to mark 25 years as Pontiff next October. While Vatican historians reflect on his legacy, the anniversary's approach is also expected to spark the most intense round of speculation about who may eventually succeed the ailing Pope. There are no declared candidates, but campaigning for one of the most closely watched elections will soon reach a new peak — just very, very quietly. In keeping with tradition, the Vatican doesn't discuss the election of the next Pope — decided in a secret Sistine Chapel conclave of all Cardinals under 80 years old — while the current Pontiff is still alive. But with John Paul II suffering the progressive effects of Parkinson's disease and six different surgical procedures, speculation about his successor will be buzzing across St. Peter's Square like never before as the October celebration draws near.

This year saw the emergence of Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi as one of the strongest candidates. Already considered papabile (as Vatican insiders refer to those with the goods to occupy St. Peter's throne), Tettamanzi, 68, leaped to virtual front-runner status when John Paul moved him from Genoa in September to head the Milan archdiocese, the world's largest. Though a traditionalist on doctrine, the portly Tettamanzi is considered a natural mediator, with few obvious enemies among his fellow Cardinals. Reaching the top of the unofficial handicappers' list, however, can mean the end of a candidate's papal ambitions: a Vatican adage says that "He who enters a conclave as Pope comes out a Cardinal."

Tettamanzi may have the wrong nationality: some Vatican watchers believe the Polish John Paul's rise to the papacy forever ended the Italians' 450-year claim on the job. "The Italian Cardinals may do all they can to get one of their own elected," says one insider. "But they just don't have the numbers anymore." If another non-Italian is picked for the job, most believe he will be Latin American. Central and South American Cardinals are the biggest bloc, with 23 of the 114 currently eligible voters — ahead of Italy's 18. The telegenic Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodríguez Maradiaga is frequently mentioned as a candidate, for his mix of insider connections and advocacy for the downtrodden. But at 59, he may be too young; many Cardinals don't want a repeat of John Paul's long papacy. Older Latin American contenders include São Paulo's Cláudio Hummes, 68, and Vatican power broker Dario Castrillón Hoyos of Colombia, 73.

Another pair of candidates from inside the Roman Curia are Italy's Giovanni Battista Re, head of the influential Congregation of Bishops, and Nigeria's Francis Arinze, head the Congregation for Divine Worship. But before backing any one man, it's worth remembering that John Paul II has already outlived several Cardinals the "experts" said would take his job.

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And in His 82nd Year, He Rested [Apr. 16, 2002] Pope John Paul II cuts back on his Holy Week duties, stirring talk of possible retirement

Sisters of Defiance [Jul. 16, 2002] Despite a Vatican ban, many Catholic women are determined to enter the priesthood

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