WALLY SANTANA/AP SCRUTINY ON THE BOUNTY: A Taiwanese soldier watches a mainland Chinese tour boat cruise past the offshore island of Ertan.

So Near, and Yet So Far

Direct flights between China and Taiwan may become a reality, but that's not a certainty

By MICHAEL SCHUMAN/Hong Kong and DON SHAPIRO/Taipei

Posted Sunday, Dec. 8, 2002; 2.02 p.m. GMT
The Taiwanese make more than half a million trips each year to China for sightseeing, visiting relatives, or — most commonly — doing business. Yet up until now, due to the long history of discord and mistrust between Taipei and Beijing, those trips have been visits to airline hell. No direct flights exist, and what might be a leisurely 75-minute flight from Taipei to Shanghai instead requires at least six hours with a stopover (typically in Hong Kong).

But the People's Republic of China has dropped most of the barriers, such as requiring Taiwan to accept the "One China" principle as a precondition of direct travel. In Taiwan, President Chen Shui-bian has begun to sort through some of the practical details, such as which airports would be most appropriate. Chen faces re-election in March 2004, and many think he'll want the issue resolved before then.

Concerns in Taiwan about autonomy and military security might still scuttle any potential agreement. Chen Shui-bian continues to insist that his government take part in negotiations, while Beijing wants a pact hammered out by private parties, such as associations representing each side's airline industries. U.S. carriers United and Northwest Airlines, which currently serve Taipei, are already angling for a piece of the action.

The big winner would surely be the weary Taiwan business traveler. But there would also be a big loser: the Hong Kong airport, which would suddenly lose a good chunk of its 2.42 million passenger traffic.

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