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| New Name, Old Worries |
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What will follow the Yugloslav Federation?
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By DEJAN ANASTASIJEVIC/Belgrade |
Posted Sunday, Dec. 8, 2002; 2.02 p.m. GMT
Next year the Yugoslav Federation ceases to exist, replaced by a loose union between Serbia and Montenegro called — you guessed it — Serbia and Montenegro. The Montenegrins, who adopted the euro as official currency, will pursue their own path to Brussels, but in Serbia the power struggle between federal President Vojislav Kostunica and Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic will suck time and energy away from essential reforms. The bickering may also help hard-line nationalists make a comeback. Former paramilitary leader Vojislav Seselj is likely to be indicted by the war crimes tribunal in the Hague, but that will be seen as Western meddling, adding to Serb frustration.
The dissolution of the Yugoslav federation will heighten tension among Kosovo's Albanians, who will argue that the U.N. resolution that defines Kosovo as part of Yugoslavia can no longer apply. Attempts by the Kosovar legislature to declare independence from Serbia will be rebuffed by the international community, triggering massive but largely peaceful protests by ethnic Albanians. Although ethnic and political tensions are unlikely to cause another set of Balkan wars, instability and occasional violence will draw Serbia further from the rest of Europe, paving the way for more conflicts.
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