J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/AP BOTSWANA, JULY 10: Schoolchildren in Gaborone gave Bush, with President Mogae, the warmest welcome of his tour

Posted Sunday, July 13, 2003; 13.05BS
Her goodwill reflects the buoyant economic mood in Botswana, which has profited from a wealth of diamonds and good governance. A beneficiary of tariff-free exports to the U.S. under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a Clinton-era program that Bush renewed and expanded, Botswana was Bush's showcase for boosting trade. Under AGOA, Botswana's apparel exports to the U.S. more than doubled last year. Other nations have hiked exports of everything from textiles to wine. President Festus Mogae called AGOA "perhaps the most significant thing that the United States has done for sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades."

But critics note that African exports under AGOA in 2002 totaled just $9 billion, a fraction of the potential trade if U.S. tariffs on commodities such as cotton were abolished. Such breaks would have a powerful continent-wide impact, a point raised repeatedly by the leaders Bush met. And freer trade makes economic sense. "The U.S. should be importing its cotton from Africa," says Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute. "They're the efficient producers. But where's the political might?" In the U.S., it lies with farmers. The U.S. "is spending between $3 billion and $4 billion a year on cotton subsidies," says Oxfam research chief Kevin Watkins, more than the Kenyan government's entire annual budget.

Bush said he's ready to cut payouts to farmers — if others are. "We have proposed a very strong reduction in agricultural subsidies," he said, but "there needs to be reciprocation from Europe and Japan." The African reply: We'll take what we can get, then push for more. AGOA "has expanded trade," says Mohamed Ibn Chambas, executive secretary of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), whose members have benefited relatively little. "You can always find ways it can be improved, but you have to start from somewhere."

Uganda: Fighting AIDS
"And crown thy good, with brotherhood, from sea to shining sea." As the young singers — all patients at Entebbe's aids Support Organization clinic — finished America the Beautiful, Bush moved to shake their small hands. As he talked with them, his eyes teared up. Then his emotion seemed to propel him into the youngsters' midst, arms outstretched for a big group hug.

Though aid for AIDS was a steady drumbeat through the whole Bush tour, Uganda was chosen for an event because it's a success story in the war against HIV. "Uganda, by confronting aids aggressively and directly, is giving hope to peoples all across the continent," Bush said. President Yoweri Museveni's government has slashed the adult rate of HIV infection to about 5% through what one official calls "hand-to-hand combat" — using catchy slogans and frank talk to raise aids awareness. Still, more than 600,000 Ugandans are HIV-positive. The disease is spreading, if more slowly, so the campaigns continue. The most recent talks about the A, B, C and D of HIV: Abstain, Change Behavior, Use Condoms or Die.

Administration officials have emphasized repeatedly that Bush's decision to funnel billions of dollars to this cause was not political, but moral. "History will judge us harshly if we don't act," explains communications director Dan Bartlett. "We" includes Congress: as each of the 14 designated countries meets standards for delivery of care, they'll be eligible for funds, but legislators will decide how much of the promised money will actually flow. As much as they appreciate aid, many Africans suggest — again — that freer trade might be better, if politically tougher for Bush to sell back home, than aid.

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