The Long Goodbye
The Iraq war ended Britain's love affair with Tony Blair, but that doesn't look like it will stop the Prime Minister winning a historic third term
Looking For A Cure
Labour is pouring billions into the National Health Service. Is it getting better?
Posted Sunday, May 1, 2005; 12.03 GMT
If the Conservatives can float people's boats, Anne Sacks in Lancaster & Wyre is almost sure to drown. She's the Labour candidate in a constituency where the party edged out the Tories in 2001 by only 481 votes. The slightest whiff of indifference by Labour voters, or defection to the Liberal Democrats or Greens who have recently done well in local elections, will see her Tory opponent, Ben Wallace, heading for Westminster.
And it isn't hard to find people who thirst for this outcome, like Cath Preddy, a former National Health Service nurse who backed Blair in 1997, stayed home in 2001 and will definitely vote Conservative this time. "Blair hasn't kept his promises. The NHS is down the drain. The government is crap," she fumes as she pushes her fourth child around the market in Lancaster, 330 km northwest of London. The city provides the core of Labour support, but the constituency also has lots of farms and prosperous suburbs full of defense workers who lean Tory.
Sacks has her work cut out. Born in South Africa, a Londoner until two years ago, the first-time candidate is replacing a popular retiring Labour M.P. and was selected to fight the seat only after party headquarters enforced an all-female shortlist over local grumbles. As she goes door to door, her inexperience shows. She spends too much time looking at her clipboard instead of locking in eye contact. But she projects quiet sincerity and determination. Every vote is precious.
In Sacks' headquarters are tables for each ward piled high with envelopes whose main attraction is a DVD which is to be hand-delivered to increase the chance the recipient will watch. The disk contains a brief clip from Tony Blair, but its highlights are testimonials from locals about how things have improved under Labour, followed by graphics with pleasing statistics: 180 new teachers, 119 new police aides, 22,800 free nursery places, a 63% fall in unemployment. Trying to parry Tory attacks on Labour's record of delivery, Sacks says quietly to the camera, "I do think we should talk Lancaster & Wyre up rather than down." It's low-key and geared to local issues, a gentle prod to "schoolgate mums" dubious about Blair to please reconsider.
No pictures of the Prime Minister mar her campaign leaflet — "It actually didn't occur to me," she says — and tells people she opposed the war. But to retain the seat Labour HQ would forgive almost any apostasy and is pouring in support: 5,000 phone calls, 39,000 pieces of direct mail, 30,000 newsletters. Wallace, a former member of the Scottish parliament, isn't getting that kind of help from London. "Maybe Central Office figures it's won already," he says, though he's campaigning hard. As he pounds the pavement in Staina, a tidy but not posh suburb of immaculate gardens where retired men wear neckties, he tells a plumber who says he was better off before Blair that Labour "penalizes people like you and me who do the right thing" by over-taxing, over-regulating, and means-testing too many benefits. The people he meets express lots of support. They complain about crime, out-of-control youth, and a few about immigration — though the number of foreigners in the constituency is tiny.
A genial former Army officer, Wallace hopes to be part of a big intake of new Tory MPs who can revitalize the party. There is one wild card — some 15,000 students in the constituency who may desert Labour for the Lib Dems and Greens. Because of Iraq and Labour's imposition of tuition fees, one Sacks canvasser at the University of Lancaster says "it's not cool" to be Labour anymore. Whenever she encounters someone tempted to back the Lib Dems, she argues it will help "that nice Mr. Howard get to Downing St." But the university was out of session during the 2001 election and the Lib Dems are too far behind to win, so in an essentially two-horse race between Labour and Tories, Labour may still profit from the student vote. Nevertheless, Sue Riley, the editor of the Lancaster Guardian, figures Wallace has the overall edge. Sacks' campaign manager, her husband David Marsh, is suitably anxious, saying "I feel as good as the last voter I talked to."
Reality Check
[Nov. 09, 2004]
Europe longed for a Bush defeat. Will his victory deepen the transatlantic divide? A look ahead
The Heart Of Labour [Oct. 05, 2004]
Blair's encounter with the doctors is like the other good news he's been getting lately: mixed at best.
The War at Home [Sep. 28, 2004]
From a hostage crisis to the Labour Party conference, Blair sees Iraq everywhere he looks
Town vs. Country [Sep. 21, 2004]
A move to end hunting with dogs in Britain sparks unexpected outrage
Doctor's Orders [Aug. 16, 2004]
Europe's health-care systems need strong medicine. Germany and Britain show signs of life, but in France, doctors are defecting
What the Butler Saw [Aug. 02, 2004]
An investigation finds that Blair took Britain to war on a false premise — yet shouldn't be held to blame
Final Rounds
[Jun. 07, 2001]
An electoral rout threatens the Conservatives' unity and Hague's leadership on the last day of the campaign
Right Side Down [Jun. 18, 2001]
Europe's conservatives need a radical remedy to reverse their chronic decline
Tony Blair's Next War [May 12, 2003]
It's a battle for the soul of Europe. Can the British leader — celebrating his 50th birthday — stop the alliance from splitting apart?
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