DARREN STAPLES / REUTERS LAST STAND Blair fights his final campaign amid new questions about the Iraq war

The Long Goodbye
	Tony Blair looks set to win what he's said will be his last campaign. but for many, the Iraq war has tarnished his legacy
	By J.F.O. McALLISTER

Posted Sunday, May 1, 2005; 12.03 GMT
As the blond, middle-aged woman was walking home one chilly evening recently in Lancaster, 330 km northwest of London, she saw Anne Sacks, the Labour candidate for Parliament, red rosette on her coat, doorstepping her neighbor. Not eager to hear another election sales pitch, she quickly opened her door, stepped inside, turned toward Sacks and smiled, saying: "I think Blair's a lying bastard. But I don't see the point of voting any other way, really." With another big smile, she closed the door.

If opinion polls are right, this encounter is a good proxy for the collective judgment millions of Britons will make this Thursday. That's when they decide whether to return Prime Minister Tony Blair for a third consecutive term in office, unprecedented for his Labour Party. And the signs are that they will do it, almost in spite of themselves.

On most counts, Blair has made a success of his first two terms in office. Britain is prosperous; employment rates are historically high and interest rates historically low. Only 10% of voters cite the economy as a worry. The country's hospitals and schools are starting to improve as Labour pledged when the party swept to power in 1997 and was re-elected in 2001. No great crises loom. Living standards have overtaken those in France, Germany and Japan, and a country whose gastronomy used to be the punch line to a bad joke now has wall-to-wall celebrity chefs and — incroyable! — the world's best restaurant.

The trouble for Blair, and for Labour, is that Britain's more affluent, sophisticated citizens have become political picky eaters. And they're fed up with the man in charge, angry that Blair took the country to war in Iraq for reasons many think he knowingly oversold. Last week, their ire was revived when a partial leak prompted the government to publish the Attorney General's 2003 opinion on the legality of the invasion, a document it had stubbornly refused to release for the past two years.

The Attorney General concluded that it would be legitimate to invade without a second U.N. resolution, but his assessment contained many caveats and worries that Blair's public statements glided over at the time. For many, the memo confirmed suspicions that the Prime Minister maneuvered things to keep the Cabinet, Parliament and the public in the dark. Conservative leader Michael Howard said bluntly that Blair "has told lies to win elections. On the one thing on which he has taken a stand, which is taking us to war, he didn't even tell the truth on that." Blair is a "faker who has gone wrong," Howard told Time.

Despite all that's gone right over the past eight years, Blair has been indelibly stained by Iraq. And that disaffection has seeped into the electorate's lengthening litany of domestic complaints about the government, from its ban on foxhunting to its detailed performance targets for teachers and doctors to its terror bill that sought powers for indefinite house arrest without trial. All these gripes, Blair's critics say, are the product of the Prime Minister's defects: arrogance, contempt for constitutional processes, and a willingness to bend the truth to get his way. Brits are among the most positive people in Europe in how they view their personal situation compared to five years ago, and in their expectations for the next five years, yet many of them feel nothing but disdain for the man who's presided over these good times. Even if he wins re-election as expected, Blair's relationship with voters has been permanently strained — and his legacy in voters' minds irreparably damaged.

For all the antipathy felt toward Blair, Britons seem to like the alternatives even less. A MORI poll completed last week shows Labour would clean up if all its supporters turned out, getting around 40% to the Conservatives' 30% and the Liberal Democrats' 23%. That would translate into a huge Labour majority of about 160 seats in the next Parliament, only one less than the current total. But when the survey is narrowed to those certain to vote, the tally changes to a contest within the margin of error: 36% for Labour, 34% for the Tories, with the Lib Dems unchanged at 23%. While other polls are not so dire for Labour, its canvassers are greeted with enough grumpiness to worry that millions of their backers will stay home. "One lady told me she wouldn't vote Labour again because she had a problem with the night doctor service six months ago," reports John Denham, an M.P. from Southampton. "It took me 15 minutes of conversation to bring her back."

The MORI poll found that only 64% of Labour supporters are certain to vote this week, compared to 80% of Conservatives and 73% of Lib Dems. In seats where the margin of victory is small, tiny variations in turnout could determine the outcome, which is why all three main parties have carefully targeted key constituencies A key Labour strategist says its central problem is "a temptation for people to take the election for granted, or make it a referendum on Labour by itself, rather than a real choice about the future between us and the Tories."

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Reality Check [Nov. 09, 2004] Europe longed for a Bush defeat. Will his victory deepen the transatlantic divide? A look ahead The Heart Of Labour [Oct. 05, 2004] Blair's encounter with the doctors is like the other good news he's been getting lately: mixed at best. The War at Home [Sep. 28, 2004] From a hostage crisis to the Labour Party conference, Blair sees Iraq everywhere he looks Town vs. Country [Sep. 21, 2004] A move to end hunting with dogs in Britain sparks unexpected outrage Doctor's Orders [Aug. 16, 2004] Europe's health-care systems need strong medicine. Germany and Britain show signs of life, but in France, doctors are defecting What the Butler Saw [Aug. 02, 2004] An investigation finds that Blair took Britain to war on a false premise — yet shouldn't be held to blame Final Rounds [Jun. 07, 2001] An electoral rout threatens the Conservatives' unity and Hague's leadership on the last day of the campaign Right Side Down [Jun. 18, 2001] Europe's conservatives need a radical remedy to reverse their chronic decline Tony Blair's Next War [May 12, 2003] It's a battle for the soul of Europe. Can the British leader — celebrating his 50th birthday — stop the alliance from splitting apart? Seven Days In Hell [Mar. 24, 2003] Blair's character under question Can This Man Beat Blair? [Jun. 16, 2004] Blair takes a hit as Michael Howard leads Britain's Conservatives to a sweep in local elections Passion and Politics [Dec. 05, 2004] Official London is awash in sex scandal — again. But the latest one amounts to more than just titillation Whistling In the Dark? [Apr. 07, 2005] Despite self-inflicted wounds, Britain's Conservative Party is motivating its base. Is that enough to win? The Blair Legacy: Not Exactly Piffle [May 02, 2005] Tony Blair's campaign is an odd combination of success and unpopularity Search all issues of TIME Magazine Indicates premium content