The Long Goodbye
The Iraq war ended Britain's love affair with Tony Blair, but that doesn't look like it will stop the Prime Minister winning a historic third term
Looking For A Cure
Labour is pouring billions into the National Health Service. Is it getting better?
Too Turned Off to Turn Out
An increasing number of Britons aren't taking the trouble to vote
Buy One, Get One Free
This vote is as much about Gordon Brown as it is about Tony Blair
Where the War is Still Raging
The battle over Iraq has finally spread to Britain's ballot boxes
Going For Gold
The Lib-Dems threaten to unseat a top Conservative front-bencher
England Writ Small
A key marginal feels the heat of political scrutiny
Threatened By A Rising Tide
A sitting MP has much to fear from a Conservative swell

Do you think Tony Blair will serve an entire third term, or will he step down in favor of Chancellor Gordon Brown?

Yes
No


Blair in the Glare
The Iraq Fallout
[Sept. 8, 2003]
Blair's Britain
Struggle for change
[June 5, 2000]
Maggie By A Mile
Thatcher wins the election
[June 20, 1983]
premium content

Labour
Official party web site
Conservatives
Official party web site
Liberal Democrats
Official party web site
UK Elect
Site forecasting the result
tacticalvoter.net
Vote swapping on the web
notapathetic.com
Site promoting spoiled ballots
Who Should You Vote For?
Q&A site for the undecided
Make My Vote Count
Campaigning for electoral reform
TIME does not accept responsibility for external websites

E-mail your letter to the editor

Kirsty Wigglesworth / Afp-Getty Images
CHARMER Brown has lightened up a lot during the campaign
   
Buy One, Get One Free
This week's vote is as much about Gordon Brown as it is about Tony Blair
print article email TIMEeurope Subscribe

Posted Sunday, May 1, 2005; 12.03 GMT
Britain's political parties are collaborating in a mild deception. They pretend that voters are being asked to make a choice between Conservative leader Michael Howard and Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair. But this is not quite what is on offer. The allegiance of Labour M.P.s and party supporters is even now being transferred to the politician who is a near-certainty to succeed Blair as leader and Prime Minister, should Labour win this week as expected: Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown. Blair precipitated these defections last September, when he said he would step down after this election and before a subsequent one. This week's vote is therefore as much a choice between Howard and Brown as it is between Howard and Blair. The subliminal message of Labour's campaign is: Vote Blair, Get Brown.

The truth can be seen in Brown's demeanor: he exudes good humour in place of the glowering introspection that has characterized him for years. He is confident that Labour members will credit any victory to him because he has rallied to the cause at a time when his stock is high and Blair's is low. He's also managed to suppress the animosity he's felt toward Blair since the Prime Minister went back on his promise, made during the height of his unpopularity over the war in Iraq, to stand down before this election. It's a world away from the way they were. Such was the intimacy of their friendship in Labour's early years of government that Blair and Brown banned staff from their meetings, to the despair of civil servants. There was a danger for Blair and Brown, though, since the two men didn't always agree about what had been decided during their tête-à-tête.

What kind of Prime Minister would Brown be? He and Blair have very different personalities and increasingly different political views. In private, Brown is stimulating and engaging. He reads voraciously and fizzes with ideas, though his jokes improve neither with age nor repetition. His public performances, however, reinforce his reputation for inflexibility and remoteness. He tends to focus on one issue at a time, worrying away at it while delegating day-to-day problems to his closest aides. This modus operandi will not be so effective if he becomes Prime Minister. Brown will have to learn to be more responsive to external pressures and less reliant on a small circle of allies.

Internationally, he admires the United States — it's long been his holiday destination of choice — and the dynamism of its economy, and he wouldn't want to sour Anglo-American relations by being conspicuously aloof from President Bush. (He did not harm his relationship with the White House last week by voicing his support for Blair's decision to go to war.) Still, it's inconceivable that he could be as close to Bush as Blair has been. Brown would find it hard to disguise his annoyance at U.S. reluctance to back initiatives on climate change and debt cancellation for the developing world. When it comes to the European Union, Brown is something of a paradox. In private, his language is pro-European, but he likes the largely Euro-skeptic British media to portray him as one of their own. When negotiating with European counterparts, his approach is Thatcherite: bang the table and insist Britain gets its way.

Serving the Labour party has been a lifelong vocation for Brown. He retains a Presbyterian conviction in the redemptive power of work and an obsession with abolishing unemployment. He also fervently embraces Labour's historic commitment to reducing inequality — though he has gone about it in subtler ways than increasing income tax. This contrasts with Blair, who is more interested in making everyone wealthier than in narrowing the gap between the wealthy and the less well off. Brown has more confidence than Blair in the ability of the public sector to deliver a first-class service. He is not, however, an old-style tax-and-spend socialist. He recognizes that nothing is possible without a thriving economy, and is terrified that businesses and wealth-creating individuals might be driven offshore by high taxes.

Although on Iraq he has now given Blair unqualified public support, his private view is that the process of making the decision to go to war was insufficiently transparent and rigorous. Which is why he would want to overhaul and codify much of the British constitution to prevent such allegedly slipshod decision-making from being repeated. It's all about rebuilding trust, which is vital if Brown is to win the election that really matters to him — which is not this week's vote, but the one after.


Robert Peston is City editor of the Sunday Telegraph and the author of Brown's Britain (Short Books)

Reality Check [Nov. 09, 2004]
Europe longed for a Bush defeat. Will his victory deepen the transatlantic divide? A look ahead

The Heart Of Labour [Oct. 05, 2004]
Blair's encounter with the doctors is like the other good news he's been getting lately: mixed at best.

The War at Home [Sep. 28, 2004]
From a hostage crisis to the Labour Party conference, Blair sees Iraq everywhere he looks

Town vs. Country [Sep. 21, 2004]
A move to end hunting with dogs in Britain sparks unexpected outrage

Doctor's Orders [Aug. 16, 2004]
Europe's health-care systems need strong medicine. Germany and Britain show signs of life, but in France, doctors are defecting

What the Butler Saw [Aug. 02, 2004]
An investigation finds that Blair took Britain to war on a false premise — yet shouldn't be held to blame

Final Rounds [Jun. 07, 2001]
An electoral rout threatens the Conservatives' unity and Hague's leadership on the last day of the campaign

Right Side Down [Jun. 18, 2001]
Europe's conservatives need a radical remedy to reverse their chronic decline

Tony Blair's Next War [May 12, 2003]
It's a battle for the soul of Europe. Can the British leader — celebrating his 50th birthday — stop the alliance from splitting apart?

Seven Days In Hell [Mar. 24, 2003]
Blair's character under question

Can This Man Beat Blair? [Jun. 16, 2004]
Blair takes a hit as Michael Howard leads Britain's Conservatives to a sweep in local elections

Passion and Politics [Dec. 05, 2004]
Official London is awash in sex scandal — again. But the latest one amounts to more than just titillation

Whistling In the Dark? [Apr. 07, 2005]
Despite self-inflicted wounds, Britain's Conservative Party is motivating its base. Is that enough to win?

The Blair Legacy: Not Exactly Piffle [May 02, 2005]
Tony Blair's campaign is an odd combination of success and unpopularity

Search all issues of TIME Magazine
Indicates premium content



Table of Contents
Subscribe to TIME

ADVERTISEMENT

On New Year's Eve, the Miseries of Minsk
As Russia hikes up the cost of gas for Belarus, the mood turns gloomy
Mogadishu at 60 Miles an Hour
Arms merchants are once again doing brisk business after a rapid change of power in this tough town, but so far the peace has held
The Year of The Nuke
A rundown of the world's nuclear powerhouses, and what to expect in the coming months


QUICK LINKS:  Wounded :: NHS Cure :: Turned Off :: Viewpoint :: Battle Lines :: Dorset :: Lancaster :: Gravesend :: Back to TIMEeurope.com Home
FROM THE MAY 9, 2005 ISSUE OF TIME MAGAZINE; POSTED SUNDAY, MAY 1, 2005.

Copyright © Time Inc. and Time Warner Publishing B.V. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

Try AOL UK for 1 month FREE | Try FOUR free issues of TIME | Give the Gift of TIME
TIME Global Adviser | TIME Next | TIME Archive 1923 to the Present | TIME Europe Covers Gallery
Letters to the Editor | Contact Us | Privacy Policy

TIME Europe home page

EDITIONS: TIME.com | TIME Asia | TIME Canada | TIME Pacific | TIME For Kids