Bob Edme / AP PROTEST VOTE Supporters of the "no" vote, most of them Basques, carry banners and Basque flags during a march. The banner reads: "No to this constitution"

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Posted Sunday, May 22, 2005; 10:39BST
Instead of embracing change with the vigor and élan that has been their historical trademark, many French seem afraid and petulant as they cling to a heroic image of their country that no longer matches reality. "There's no trust in the future, no capacity for risk taking," says Bernard Spitz, founder of the center-left think tank In Real Time and co-editor of a 2004 compendium of proposed reforms entitled State of Urgency. "The French just aren't happy about the way the world turns right now, and the referendum gives them a chance to say no to many things: to Turkey in the E.U., to Chirac, to enlargement, to offshoring of jobs, to globalization."

Many French might think that by rejecting the constitution they can make all these things just go away. It won't happen. For the past 20 years, France has suffered from chronic unemployment, currently at 10.2%. While the economy grew 2.5% last year — against an E.U. average of 2.4% — that still hasn't generated enough jobs. For a generation, budget deficits have become almost as common as labor strikes. And French productivity per employee increased at just half the rate of the rest of the world between 1995 and 2003, according to a report released last week by the Conference Board, a business-oriented research institute in New York City. If the French want to keep their social model intact, they'll have to figure out a way to pay for it. "The perception people have of the future — Will our children's lives be better or worse than ours? — is at a low," says Frenchman Pascal Lamy, the former European Trade Commissioner who's expected to take over as president of the World Trade Organization (wto) later this year. "People feel they have to work more to make less." It's largely that sense of malaise that could drive a majority of French voters to scupper the European constitution on Sunday, bringing the E.U.'s drive toward "ever closer union" to a grinding halt.

The debate has centered mainly on whether the constitution is or isn't a kind of Trojan horse by which the dreaded "Anglo-Saxon liberalism" — i.e., unfettered free-market capitalism — will be given free rein in France, gnawing at such hard-won social gains as the 35-hour workweek, well-funded public services and strong protection against layoffs. On the far left, Marie-George Buffet, national secretary of the French Communist Party, said that bringing the constitution down "will be an extraordinary signal to all the world's peoples that the wto and Bush will no longer reign as their masters." On the far right, National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen has said a yes vote would be tantamount to "capitulation." Laurent Fabius, a former Socialist Prime Minister who has thrown in his lot with the no camp, says the constitution would lead to "a diluted Europe with ever more member states, ever lower wages and benefits and an ever weaker capacity for decision making."

The controversy has transported the French: guides to the constitution have become best sellers, radio discussions drone on ad nauseum about the pros and cons of the document, and a poll last week revealed that 83% of French people say they've discussed the referendum at home or at work this month. The yes and no sides have been seesawing in the polls, but surveys released last week put no on top at 53%. The vote could still go either way.

Despite the gripes of the no campaign, the constitution does nothing new to hammer home the power of the market in the E.U. Its main intent is to streamline the Union's decision-making processes now that it has 25 members. National governments will elect a European Council President, and there will be a new post of European Foreign Minister. The size of the European Commission will be reduced, more policies will be decided by majority voting rather than unanimity, and more power will be given to the European Parliament. The constitution does, however, restate various economic principles on which the national governments of all member states (including France) have already agreed: restrictions on state aid to businesses, guarantees for the free flow of capital and the European Central Bank's mandate to preserve price stability. This is all pretty standard stuff, but the French public never had the chance to vote on it. Now that they do, they may say, "No way."

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