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 Against the Wall
A still-divided Germany heads to the polls, with Angela Merkel seeking to topple Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Whoever wins will have a lot of work to do |
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Level Levy
Merkel has pledged to boost economic growth. Could a flat tax help her do it? |
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ARCHIVE Party Time
Germany's Christian Democrats look set to oust the ruling Social Democrats — if challenger Angela Merkel avoids missteps and keeps her party in line |
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| ralph orlowski / getty images |
| two ways
The German economy is struggling with weak consumer demand and an aging population |
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Posted Sunday, September 11, 2005; 11.34BST
The truly depressing thing about the election is this: whoever wins Sunday's vote, expectations are not high that much will change. A Time/cnn poll last week found that just 30% of Germans surveyed thought Merkel would be more effective at tackling unemployment than Schröder has been. "We will continue to be plagued by high unemployment and an economic growth rate of not more than 1.5%, no matter who runs the country," says Stefan Bach, a tax policy expert at the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin. "That's the trend we're looking at, and we have to react with much more drastic changes than have been implemented so far."
"This country is up a creek without a paddle," sighs Marc Bepler, 33, a system administrator, as he savors an iced tea after a game of badminton on the outskirts of Bonn. Bepler says he'll vote cdu, but doubts the party will be able to realize needed reforms. Christoph Zink, a 34-year-old Green supporter, agrees: "The cdu will win and try to push through what they consider to be the right reforms. But they will antagonize voters and lose the [next] local elections. The vote will swing left again."
The world has changed since 1989, and Germany has yet to find its place
JOHN KORNBLUM, former U.S. ambassador
And that, perhaps, encapsulates the biggest risk of all — that far from ameliorating political and social rifts in Germany, the election may exacerbate them. For the first time since reunification in 1990, a hard-left party is set to make substantial gains in an election: the Left Party, formerly known as the Party of Democratic Socialism (pds). "There's not a single party remaining in the Bundestag that represents the interests of the public," says Oskar Lafontaine, 62, of the Linksbündnis, an alliance he helped cobble together between disaffected spd members and the Left Party after Schröder called snap elections in May. "Only we offer an alternative to the all-pervading neoliberalism." Lafontaine's alternative: "Reducing taxes on low-income earners while increasing them on the well-to-do, the introduction of a minimum wage of €1,400 [per month] as well as a minimum pension of €800 [per month]." All that, plus higher payments for families with children; Lafontaine proposes increasing monthly child allowances from €154 to €250 and making kindergarten spaces free. "We're not talking about unbelievable election promises here," he says during a campaign stop in Saarbrücken. "We are the only political party to offer a sound financial policy."
If the Left Party does well, it could derail Merkel's drive for a workable majority in the Bundestag. National polls put the party's support at around 9%, easily enough to secure plenty of seats in parliament. In the ailing eastern states, where the pds had its power base, the Left Party could get 27% of the vote, according to the Leipzig Institute for Market Research.
No surprise about why that might be. Among easterners, disappointment with the development of Germany since reunification is growing fast. "The politicians don't have a clue what to do," says Jana Hensel, 29, author of After the Wall (titled Zonenkinder in Germany), a best-selling book about growing up in the east. Hensel believes the problems of eastern Germany, including worsening unemployment, high crime rates and a constant flow of emigration to the west, "are so severe that if they are not solved in 10 years there will be an unimaginable wave of social upheaval." Meinhard Miegel, head of the Bonn-based Institute for Economy and Society, warns that "the divide between eastern and western Germany is growing again. A permanent downward spiral could drag the whole country down."
How a cdu-led government would deal with that prospect is unclear. Merkel herself, though an Ossi, says she wants to represent "both east and west," and in the TV debate said, "I am proud to be a politician for all Germany with east German roots." By contrast, Gregor Gysi, the Left Party's co-leader, told Time recently that the east did not trust Merkel precisely because "she denied her eastern roots." Last month she tasked Dieter Althaus, 47, the Governor of Thuringia, with overseeing policy toward the east. At present, subsidies to modernize infrastructure, bail out companies and create jobs are spread thinly across the region; Althaus says the cdu would target them on industries and regions with greater potential. He calls charges that the costs of reunification amount to "a brake" on the economy "nonsense": "The east gets the blame, but in fact we need to reform the whole economy."
Support for the Left Party, though it appears to have trailed off as voting day approaches, is one reason why the election could still be close. So is a loosening of the bonds that once ensured that most people voted for the same party for life. Far more voters are inclined to switch parties today than they were 30 or 40 years ago, when churches and the trade unions helped get out the vote. Young people, too, have changed the way they approach politics. According to public opinion polls, their concerns now focus less on the environment, equal rights and social justice — those quintessential issues of the 1960s and 1970s — and more on jobs and economics. That shift may take young votes from the Greens and benefit the pro-business fdp. The bulk of the Greens' support used to be among those in their 20s and 30s; now their core supporters are over 50. And now more than 60% of fdp supporters are younger than 40.
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Waving or Drowning? German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder campaigns like a winner, but he and his party are still the underdogs
Party Time [August 29, 2005]
Germany's Christian Democrats look set to oust the ruling Social Democrats — if challenger Angela Merkel avoids missteps and keeps her party in line
Place Your Bets [June 6, 2005]
German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has called a snap election. Inside his gambit to defeat opposition leader Angela Merker
Interview [June 6, 2005]
Schröder on why he thinks he can win
A Tough Opponent [June 6, 2005]
Opposition leader Angela Merker's Biographer on why she'll be hard to beat
10 Questions For Gerhard Schröder [Feb. 28, 2005]
TIME Berlin bureau chief Charles P. Wallace talked to Schröder about the uneasy alliance
A New Germany Rises [Sep. 20, 2004] 
Growth is slow, and jobs are still scarce, but Europe's biggest economy is showing some fragile signs of life. Now consumers have to conquer their fear of the future
Schröder Fires Himself [Feb. 16, 2004]
Germany's Chancellor steps down as party leader; is that enough to revive the SPD's — and his — fortunes?
Willkommen, Ausländer [June 7, 2004]
Chancellor Schröder hopes to boost the German economy by inviting skilled foreigners to immigrate
Schröder's Private Pilgrimage [Aug. 16, 2004]
The German Chancellor's very personal visit to Romania is the latest step in a painful journey for him and his country
It actually feels like I am being blamed for everything at the moment [Dec. 22, 2002]
INTERVIEW: Europe needs Gerhard Schröder to turn things around. Can he do it?
Risking His Own Welfare [Nov. 3, 2003]
With plans to cut pension benefits, Gerhard Schröder is finally getting serious about reform. Or is he?
Collateral Damage [March 3, 2003]
The war against Saddam has already claimed three prominent victims
Germany Faces Reality [Dec. 17, 2001]
After long denying that its economy is vulnerable to world recession, the country braces for trouble
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