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TIME EUROPE DECEMBER 27, 1999 VOL. 154 NO. 26 Life After Tudjman The Croatian President's death shakes the ruling party--and opens up the possibility of reform By ANDREW PURVIS Sarajevo There was little mourning abroad last week at the death of Croatia's autocratic and hard-to-like President Franjo Tudjman. At a ceremony in Zagreb, not a single European Union head of state attended. Among Croatians the sadness was nevertheless profound. One hundred thousand residents streamed past the coffin in the capital's main cemetery, some weeping and tossing flower petals into the open tomb. Tudjman, after all, was still the nation's founding President, a man who so dominated the affairs of state that few could imagine a Croatia without him. He so thoroughly dominated the affairs of state that few could imagine a Croatia without him. His death has thrown the country into political turmoil. It coincides with parliamentary elections, belatedly scheduled for Jan. 3, in which Tudjman's ruling party, the HDZ, or Croatian Democratic Union, is expected to lose its majority for the first time. So Croatia faces two shocks--the President's death and the ouster of the formidable HDZ. Those tremors will in turn rattle neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina. But the impact in the Balkans and elsewhere is likely to be positive. Tudjman's passing could breathe new life into long overdue reforms. It is hard to overestimate the HDZ's stifling influence on daily life in Croatia; it has successfully muzzled the opposition through restrictive press laws and continues to control the military, state-owned corporations and television. Under its stewardship, Croatia's economy has hit the skids. Unemployment now nears 20%, the banking system is recovering from near collapse and corruption is endemic. Meanwhile, relations with the E.U. and the U.S. are badly strained, with Western powers critical of Zagreb for its refusal to repatriate Serb refugees expelled during the war, open up the radio and TV to broader participation and cooperate fully with investigators from the Hague-based war crimes tribunal for former Yugoslavia. Just last month, the U.S. State Department accused the Croatian secret service of breaking into the homes of a U.S. diplomat and an aid official as part of a harassment campaign. Zagreb responded by accusing the cia of plotting against the government. In neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina, diplomats say Zagreb's cozy relationship with Bosnian Croat hard-liners has undermined the Western-backed peace process and impeded efforts to set up multiethnic institutions. Last week nato peacekeepers in Sarajevo gave fresh details of a spy ring operated by Bosnian Croat agents and targeting U.N. officials in Bosnia and in the Hague. A spokesman also said nato has new evidence linking Bosnian Croat secret services and secret services in Croatia. More broadly, oppostion figures in Sarajevo say the Bosnian branch of the HDZ is helping shore up the ethnic Croat presence in western Herzegovina in order to prevent the return of Muslim refugees--in violation of the 1995 Dayton Peace accords. Tudjman was a critical factor in supporting such Croat nationalism, arguing as recently as October for a separate Croat administration in Bosnia. How much all this will change with Tudjman's death and new elections is unclear. In presidential polls, to be held within two months, the HDZ could hang on to power. Front-runners include Foreign Minister Mate Granic, whose pro-integration rhetoric has made him a favorite with the West. The top opposition candidate is Drazen Budisa, of the Social Liberals. Another key figure in the HDZ is a hard-liner, Vladimir Seks, who could emerge as the éminence grise behind a Granic candidacy. All candidates say they would reduce the powers of the presidency, widely considered excessive and autocratic. The outcome of parliamentary elections is more certain. The HDZ, hoping desperately for a rebound effect from Tudjman's death, launched its campaign last week with posters picturing the late President cradling a child in Croatian national garb. But an opposition coalition of the Social Democratic Party, made up mostly of reformed communists and the centrist Social Liberals, is still showing a comfortable lead in public opinion polls. If elected, the coalition says it will slash taxes and government spending and woo foreign investment. It will also likely move to reduce presidential powers and loosen ties with Bosnian Croat hard-liners. But more sensitive reforms might be further off. Liberalizing the media, for example, and handing over potentially incriminating war crimes material to the Hague would meet resistance. Whoever wins at the polls, HDZ hard-liners will still control sections of the military and the secret services. Forcing change too quickly could provoke a backlash. "It will take time to deconstruct the Tudjman legacy," says Zarko Puhovski, professor of political philosophy at the University of Zagreb. Even those Croatians mourning Tudjman's death last week would agree: most revere the man more than what he has left behind. With reporting by Dejan Anastasijevic/Vienna TIME Europe home E-mail us at mail@timeatlantic.com COPYRIGHT © 1999 TIME INC. NEW MEDIA |
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