TIME EUROPE
May 22, 2000 VOL. 155 NO. 20
Viewpoint
The Mantle of Mandela
With a hard act to follow, Thabo Mbeki has little room for error
By PETER HAWTHORNE
The transition from the Nelson Mandela era to that of Thabo Mbeki has been notably smooth, the successor's brand of low-key diplomacy keeping South Africa in the vanguard of the drive for peace and democratic values in Africa. But President Mbeki's first year of office is turning into an annus horribilis. His dream of an African Renaissance has been shattered by a recrudescence of fighting in many parts of the continent and most recently by events on his own doorstep — the meltdown in Zimbabwe.
The fallout from Zimbabwe is more than a moral and diplomatic dilemma for Mbeki. Already South Africa is being materially affected by international reaction to the chaotic state of its northern neighbor. A loss of 13% of the value of the South African rand — crashing to an unprecedented seven rands to the dollar since the beginning of this year — was not caused only by a strong dollar but by continued fears within the country about Zimbabwe.
Last month, after two white farmers were killed in Zimbabwe by squatters — a third died last week, bringing to at least 19 the number of people killed in the latest upsurge of violence — the South African bond market saw a record outflow of $257 million in one day. "The impact on South Africa has been direct and damaging," says South African Chamber of Business ceo Kevin Wakeford, who took a team of businessmen to assess the situation in landlocked Zimbabwe — South Africa's largest export market within Africa.
Some South African banks refused to handle Zimbabwe currency. Investors and government Home Affairs officials share concern that thousands more Zimbabweans will join the stream of illegal immigrants heading across the Limpopo River to seek jobs in South Africa, where unemployment is already running at about 35%.
Looking for leadership, many South Africans expected Mbeki to take a firm stand against the breakdown of law and order in Zimbabwe. Instead, his signals brought more dismay and confusion. While Archbishop Desmond Tutu, never one to mince his words, described Mugabe as a "caricature" of an African leader, Mbeki was pictured holding hands with the Zimbabwean President at a regional summit in Victoria Falls last month. While Nelson Mandela, though not referring to Mugabe directly, denounced power-hungry former liberation leaders and called for the downfall of "the tyrant of the day," Mbeki was happily opening a trade show in the Zimbabwean city of Bulawayo.
At the meeting of southern African leaders in Victoria Falls, there was no outright condemnation of the civil rights violations in Zimbabwe, only messages of support for Mugabe's stand on the land issue and an agreement to urge Britain to "fulfil its promises" to provide financial aid for Mugabe's land reform policy.
As local and international commentators are pointing out, the issue in Zimbabwe is not about land but about democracy and the rule of law. A rare state broadcast by Mbeki — clearly to calm the country's nervousness over the Zimbabwe crisis, but containing not a word of censure of the Harare government's stance — was slated as disastrous by his critics. Mugabe has violated practically every international undertaking Zimbabwe has ever signed relating to democracy, good governance and human rights, said Tony Leon, leader of the South African opposition Democratic Party. "Why is our government prevaricating and posturing in public in willful defiance of the screamingly obvious?"
What is less obvious, of course, is what Mbeki may be saying to Mugabe privately. There has been no denial from his office, for instance, of reports that Mbeki has offered Mugabe financial aid and help to secure U.S. and British government backing and imf and World Bank credit for his land distribution plans. In exchange, he would have to hold a free and fair general election, without any harassment of the opposition, before August. He'd also have to call a halt to the land invasions and seizures, and withdraw his troops supporting President Laurent Kabila in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Mbeki's handling of the Zimbabwe crisis may not be what all South Africans want, but it is being applauded in the U.S. and Britain, where government leaders will meet with the South African President in an official visit this week. Mbeki was dealing with the Zimbabwe issue with commendable tact "while delivering some unmistakable messages," said U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, in Pretoria last week.
Mbeki's soft-shoe diplomacy looks to be a gamble with very high stakes. Success in defusing the Zimbabwe time-bomb could boost his stature both in the region and internationally. Failure will be a damaging setback for the man who followed Mandela.
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May 22, 2000
COVER
The Amazing Vikings
They earned their brutal reputation — but the Norse were also craftsmen, explorers and believers in democracy
EUROPE
Ulster's Choice
The Unionists must decide if the I.R.A.'s arms offer is enough for a new try at self-government
I'm Melting, I'm Melting!
The biggest danger of a weak euro is that the current export-led growth spurt will persuade Euroland governments that they can keep postponing much-needed structural reforms
Promises, Promises
After four months of de facto rule and much talk of a new Russia, Vladimir Putin must now deliver
Warming Things Up
Austria's government hopes to end the E.U.'s ostracism of its officials
Human Rights Leave Chopper Deal in a Spin
A $4 billion sale to Turkey is at stake, but protesters insist the U.S. Administration keeps a promise
Last Words on the Left Bank
Paris' old bohemian quarter is under siege by boutiques and tourists
AFRICA
The Somalia Syndrome
A new book by a veteran journalist explores how earlier rescue missions to Africa went wrong
The Mantle of Mandela
With a hard act to follow, Thabo Mbeki has little room for error
BUSINESS
Initial Opportunities
Europe's small investors will be able to participate via the Web in the upside — and downside — of IPOs
Westwardly Mobile
Japan's NTT DoCoMo joins forces with Dutch telecom company KPN to expand across Europe
Tracking Down a Better Deal
Exchange traded funds will give Europeans more choices and lower fees
THE ARTS
English is the Lingua Franca in Cannes
The world's most famous film festival may keep Hollywood at bay, but French still comes second
DEPARTMENTS
Olympic Monitor
Techwatch
World Watch
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