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TIME EUROPE
June 19, 2000 VOL. 155 NO. 24


Voting Under the Gun
Municipal elections in Montenegro turn into a mini-referendum on the Yugoslav republic's future
By ANDREW PURVIS Podgorica

In many ways the just-completed municipal elections in the tiny Yugoslav republic of Montenegro were typical for the Balkans: battered cars tearing up and down a tree-lined Lenin Boulevard, turbo folk music blaring from the windows and flags trailing behind. But the usual campaign issues of garbage collection and urban renewal that dominate most city elections were conspicuously absent. The tone was more ominous. ÒSerbia! Serbia!Ó screamed a carload of Belgrade supporters, waving the three-fingered Yugoslav hand signal. ÒI love YU!Ó (for Yugoslavia) proclaimed a placard. A sea of Serb and Yugoslav flags swayed in the breeze at the last opposition rally before SundayÕs polls, while 14th century Byzantine religious icons, put up for the occasion, loomed over the speakerÕs platform. ÒThey want to steal our history!Ó Zoran Zizic, deputy chairman of the Belgrade-backed Socialist PeopleÕs Party told a crowd. ÒWe want a pure Yugoslavia!Ó shouted one woman in response.

To the dismay of Western observers, elections that should have been about urban planning and economic reform became a kind of mini-referendum on the explosive question of MontenegroÕs independence. The campaign brought dangerous emotions to the surface, and ushered in what many observers believe will be a critical six months for the future of SerbiaÕs last partner in a truncated Yugoslav federation. Even so, the results will be inconclusive once the counting is finished. In the largest of the two contested municipalities, the capital Podgorica, the edge is expected to go to the ruling coalition led by the independence-leaning President, Milo Djukanovic, thus allowing him to continue with his delicate game of incrementally distancing the republic from BelgradeÕs control without having to call a general election. In the second, much smaller, jurisdiction, the Adriatic resort town of Herzeg Novi, the contest was too close to call at weekÕs end.

In any case, most Montenegrins were preoccupied less with the vote than with what took place before it. Two weeks ago, Goran Zugic, personal security adviser and close confidant of President Djukanovic, was gunned down outside his apartment block as he returned home late one night. The murder stunned the capital, which, unlike Belgrade, has seen little political violence in recent months. It was immediately laid at the door of the Milosevic regime by members of DjukanovicÕs coalition. ÒThey wanted to demonstrate how far they can reach,Ó Dragisa Burzan, vice premier and a member of DjukanovicÕs coalition, told Time. Though no one has been arrested, a high-ranking police official claimed that the assassins Òwere from Yugoslav state security, and the Yugoslav army [which has a base in downtown Podgorica] provided logistics.Ó Others speculated that Zugic may have been targeted by racketeers. But for most residents, the killing was proof that a crackdown by Belgrade had begun.

Fears of a crackdown have become endemic in Montenegro at least since last yearÕs NATO bombing. They have been fueled recently by BelgradeÕs decision to put its estimated 15,000 to 20,000-strong Montenegro-based troops on alert, and by the move to close the Serbia-Montenegro border to trade earlier this spring. Djukanovic, visibly shaken by the assassination of his friend, seemed particularly eager to ease tensions. He refrained from explicitly striking out at Belgrade and never mentioned the once-promised referendum on independence, a measure that most analysts believe would inevitably trigger a harsh reaction from Serbia. ÒWe need time, wisdom and patience,Ó he told supporters, enigmatically, on the eve of the vote.

The impasse, of course, has its benefits for the Djukanovic government. Western donors eager to shore up an opponent of Milosevic are helping to cover pension and welfare payments. The aid is critical to DjukanovicÕs political survival, but it provides little incentive for badly needed economic reform. Unemployment is at 40%Ñthe local police are the biggest employer. ÒItÕs an exceedingly ineffectual administration,Ó notes one Western analyst.

The visibility of Western support is providing fodder for DjukanovicÕs enemies. ÒWe donÕt want to live under occupation by nato or the U.S.,Ó said one office worker and opposition supporter, who would identify herself only as Vera. ÒWe want to live free or go to war.Ó She may be the exception. Even among DjukanovicÕs critics, few Montenegrins seem prepared to fight for their political beliefs. Some analysts predict widespread defections from the Yugoslav army if it is ordered onto the streets. After watching the dismemberment of Yugoslavia at close quarters, Montenegrins do have one thing in common regardless of political leanings: a vivid awareness of just how much is at stake.

With reporting by Dejan Anastasijevic

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June 19, 2000

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