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TIME EUROPE September 18, 2000, Vol. 156 No. 12 The Energy Crunch Soaring fuel prices set off protests and raise questions about Europe's sources of power By THOMAS SANCTON Paris PAGE 2 The German decision came as a major psychological blow to Paris — and could have important economic consequences as well. Not only is the epr project threatened by the loss of the German market; so is the state-owned COGEMA reprocessing plant at La Hague, which depends on Germany for 10% of its turnover. With Germany committed to ending waste shipments to La Hague by 2005, the French unit will be hard-pressed to find new customers in a world of declining nuclear industry.
Most other West European countries have already sworn off nukes or seem headed toward a de facto decommissioning as their aging facilities wear out. Britain, for example, currently relies on nuclear energy for about 28% of its electricity, yet all but one of its reactors will have ceased functioning by 2020 and there is no plan to build new ones. Italy voted to abandon nuclear energy in 1987 and has turned largely to imported fossil fuels to meet its needs. But under the impetus of the Kyoto accords — and, more recently, the feverish rise of oil prices — the government is aiming to cut fossil fuel usage by 13% over the next 10 years, mainly through more efficient consumption, development of renewable sources and more use of methane gas, which is the main constituent of natural gas. Twice as efficient and half as polluting as other fossil fuels, natural gas is widely considered the best alternative to nuclear power. Its attractiveness is enhanced by new combined-cycle technology in which hot gases that are burned to drive one turbine are recaptured and used to drive a second turbine. While conventional gas plants operated at only a 30% to 40% efficiency, the new piggyback method can boost that to nearly 60%. Says Christian Lescure, executive vice president for corporate planning and control for state-owned Gaz de France: "The German decision can only encourage the pronounced European trend to give gas an important role." There is a downside to gas dependency, however: two of the three main producers, Russia (32% of the E.U.'s supplies) and Algeria (22%), are politically unstable. That means supplies could be interrupted and prices could soar. Warns Fatih Birol, head of economic analysis at the Paris-based International Energy Agency: "In the future, there could be gas crises just as there were oil crises in the '70s." As for renewable sources, opinions differ on how much of the future energy burden they can bear. Some experts see their role limited to the 5% to 10% range, but others are more optimistic. A report published by Shell at the end of last year predicts that the share could increase to 50% by mid-century, and Italy's Environment Minister Willer Bordon is hoping for close to 100% clean energy by 2100. That may be wishful thinking, but if Europe and the rest of the industrialized world have any hope of developing a safe and reliable energy strategy in the long run, this is where they should focus their efforts. Most forms of renewable energy are dependent on geographic and environmental factors that vary widely from place to place. Wind and solar energy are more feasible in Spain, for example, than in Austria, whose numerous rivers and mountains make it better suited to hydroelectric power. Most alternative sources, moreover, are costly. A nuclear reactor or a coal plant in Germany can produce one kilowatt-hour of electricity for about 1.5¢. Wind energy costs up to 10¢, water up to 20¢ and solar about $1. "People seem to think that fossil fuels are on the way out and that we are moving into a new era of sun, wind and waves," says Jan Murray, deputy secretary-general of the World Energy Council in London. "We've got a long way to go." MORE >> PAGE 1 | 2 | 3 TIME Europe home More stories from TIME Europe and related links E-mail us at mail@timeatlantic.com |
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