TIME EUROPE
November 13, 2000, Vol. 156 No. 20
Stormy Weather
Are Europe's floods, gales and droughts here to stay? Yes, say the experts — and it could get worse
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Africa will suffer in ways that scientists cannot fully predict, but the Sahel will probably become even drier and more prone to drought and famine than it already is. For Europe, that will mean a growing influx of hungry Africans who could come to be known as "weather refugees." Other visitors from the south will be such pathogens as malaria, dengue fever and encephalitis as warmer weather encourages the northern movement of disease-carrying mosquitoes. Generally warmer water can more easily harbor cholera and other waterborne diseases, which will be more readily spread during frequent floods
Some argue that the ultimate result of global warming will be a paradoxical but even more catastrophic development: global cooling. As the arctic ice cap melts, a flow of fresh water into the North Atlantic could disrupt conveyer currents including the Gulf Stream, which is what keeps Northern Europe warm. "There is an argument that short-term global warming could actually lead to long-term cooling," observes Steve Hall, an oceanographer at Britain's Southampton Oceanography Centre. "One moment we are basking in a Mediterranean climate and the next, icebergs are floating down the English Channel."
Few scientists, including Hall, believe such a scenario is likely, even a century from now. Some even question the accuracy of predictions such as those in the Acacia report. "The science of climate change is enormously complicated," says Julian Morris, an environmental analyst at London's Institute of Economic Affairs. "The data are inconclusive, contradictory and confusing." Temperature measurements, for example, have been taken for only a relatively short period of time and may be skewed by such factors as urban expansion. The climatologic history of the world is long, he says, and man's knowledge of it is short. "Attempting to make clear assessments of what is driving the climate over these much shorter time spans is fraught with difficulty."
But the growing scientific consensus is that momentous changes are coming. Not all of them, however, are bad. Forests of Scandinavia and northern Russia will grow faster and farther north than before, helping draw off CO2. "We may have longer growing seasons in northern latitudes, which farmers can exploit to have more than one harvest in a single year," says Michele Bernardi, an agrometeorologist at the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. Indeed, some of the climatic changes will produce limits on emission: soil left fallow in the hotter south will serve as a "sink" to absorb CO2. Heating needs will plummet in the warmer north, greatly reducing emissions — although high heat in the south will turn on millions of CO2-spewing air conditioners.
It is also possible that, despite governmental and industrial foot dragging, greenhouse emissions will come down. The environment-conscious Germans have shown that relatively simple changes in attitudes and lifestyle can bring significant reductions in the industrialized world, where about a third of emissions come from private households. Recycling cans and paper, lowering thermostats, improving home insulation and switching off unused lights have helped Germany reduce emissions by an impressive 18.5% since 1990, far surpassing the Kyoto target. But Europe overall is lagging. "Right now, the E.U. countries aren't doing enough to respect the Kyoto Protocol," says Michel Mousel, head of the French government's commission on the greenhouse effect.
One of the most contentious issues at the Hague meeting will be whether developed countries should be allowed to gain emission "credits" by promoting such projects as forestation in the developing world. The idea, called the Clean Development Mechanism, would allow industrialized countries to emit a ton of CO2 for every ton "sequestered" in new forests grown in the Third World. "Some governments are doing everything they can to avoid doing what they said they would," fumes Michel Raquet, the climate adviser for Greenpeace International. "The Hague conference could end with industrial countries increasing their greenhouse emissions while remaining within the Kyoto guidelines." The chief target of environmentalist wrath is, of course, the U.S., the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and the leading advocate of trading emission credits with the developing world. But the U.S. position has been up in the air because of the recent presidential election.
Whatever happens at the Hague, most climate scientists believe that global warming is already irreversible. "Even if we achieved zero emissions now, which is impossible, we will have a rise of sea level for centuries to come," says Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. It may be possible to limit the extent of the changes if the world is willing to cut emissions by 80% over the course of the coming century. But that means huge changes in lifestyle, and soon. "Climate protection will be successful only if we manage to change our energy system in the next decade or two," he says.
Only an optimist, and an uninformed optimist at that, could hope humankind will succeed in making such radical changes in time to avert the bad weather ahead. So the best advice is to get out the umbrellas and hip boots and head for high ground. Storms are coming; the water is rising. We — and our descendants — will have to learn to live with it.
With reporting by Helen Gibson/London, Barry Hillenbrand/Washington, Nicholas Le Quesne/Paris, Martin Penner/Rome and other bureaus
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November 13, 2000
COVER STORY
Stormy Weather
Are Europe's floods, gales and droughts here to stay? Yes, say the experts — and it could get worse
Any Better Ideas?
Possible solutions to global warming
EUROPE
For Whom the Bell Tolls
Lloyd's of London has won its landmark legal battle with investors. Now it must rebuild its fortunes
Interview: Max Taylor
The chairman of Lloyd's, on winning
Sitting Pretty
Once dismissed as a Barbie Doll, Socialist star Elisabeth Guigou is a premier contender
A Brief History of the Higgs Hunt
Fast Forward Europe: Scientists in Switzerland may have solved one of the great mysteries of particle physics. Why should we care?
Digital Democracy
A young German entrepreneur is campaigning to bring people all politics, all the time — online
AFRICA
Above the Waterline
New investment helps Mozambique recover from natural disaster and years of economic stagnation
BUSINESS
Middelhoff's Vision
The Bertelsmann boss pulls off a shocking deal with renegade Napster. And he's just warming up
The Bertelsmann Spirit
The Napster deal reflects the corporate culture and entrepreneurial spirit inculcated by Reinhard Mohn
New World, Old Faces
Established firms team up with online specialists to venture into the terra incognita of the Internet
SPORT
Football's Crewe Cut
Seeking an end to transfer fees, the European Commission tackles soccer's governing bodies
THE ARTS
The Best of Both Worlds
Is it possible to be upwardly mobile yet keep hold of your principles? The new élite thinks it is
DEPARTMENTS
On Your Own Time
Copenhagen
World Watch
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
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