TIME EUROPE
November 27, 2000, Vol. 156 No. 22
Mubarak's Dynasty
Despite some reforms, Egyptian election results warn the President of increasing voter discontent
By AMANY RADWAN Cairo
The village of Kerdassa near the famous Giza Pyramids outside Cairo is a postcard of rural life in Egypt. Men wearing galabia robes are weaving woolen rugs on ancient looms while women clad in colorful peasant dresses are planting cauliflowers in adjacent vegetable fields. But the bucolic scene is shattered by a commotion at the local polling station where supporters of the banned Muslim Brotherhood are being blocked by Egyptian security forces. "They will not let us vote!" one man shouts. "We want to go in and choose our candidate!" yells another. The crowd chants the Brotherhood slogan, "Islam is the solution," as police fire rounds of tear gas to disperse the protesters.
Similar standoffs occurred across the country as Egyptians went to the polls in three rounds of elections to select a new 454-seat parliament. The official results announced last week sent a clear message of dissatisfaction to President Hosni Mubarak's regime. Although his ruling National Democratic Party took an 85.5% majority, this was down from a 97% sweep in the 1995 elections and was attained only after an estimated 150 victorious independents abruptly joined the NDP after the vote. This slight quickening in the country's tortoise-paced political evolution saw some of Mubarak's veteran party bosses losing out to brash upstarts, while supporters of the Brotherhood running as independents picked up 17 seats. "We want to be like other countries, like South Africa and Poland," said Mohammed Awad, 28, a factory worker, as he waited to cast his ballot in Beni Magdool. "We want democracy."
Mubarak, who marks two decades in power next year, has proved to be one of the Middle East's steadiest hands. Besides making Egypt the leader of the Arab world, resisting Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and mediating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he has won praise for steering his country's economy into the free market. Yet for all his achievements, say Mubarak's critics, he has failed to allow Egyptian democracy to grow. Says Hala Mostapha, analyst at the Al Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies in Cairo: "Mubarak is an extremely cautious man. He is obsessed with stability."
Even before the first vote was cast last month, the pressure for change seemed to be getting through. "There is a need for new blood," said government spokesman Nabil Osman. Mubarak, who last year won his fourth term as President with a 93.8% landslide, repeatedly called for clean elections, apparently mindful of widespread discontent with government corruption, a painful economic recession and a half-century of one-party rule. The NDP put up younger candidates in place of aging party hacks, hoping that fresh faces in parliament could spur political reform and build public confidence. But even that effort was rejected by many voters, who turned to independent candidates offering an alternative to the ruling party.
The results nonetheless ensured that Mubarak and his allies will continue to call the shots. The opposition parties won only 17 votes among them. Though its influence in the new parliament remains to be seen, the Brotherhood claimed a symbolic victory. While considered a mainstream Muslim group, advocating an Islamic state through peaceful means, the Brotherhood had to deal with security forces rounding up hundreds of its election workers and ripping down campaign posters. The group persevered, campaigning on the Internet, distributing leaflets on speeding motorcycles and circumventing a constitutional ban on religion in politics: Brotherhood billboards read simply, "It is the solution."
The best solution, counter Egypt's pro-democracy advocates, is not the Brotherhood but a stronger party system that allows truly free and fair elections. One of the darkest moments during the balloting was the arrests in June and July of 20 human rights advocates, including Saad Eddin Ibrahim, a sociology professor at the American University of Cairo, who developed voter education programs and planned extensive election monitoring. They were subsequently released and will stand trial this month. The brightest hope was a law pushed by Mubarak mandating that all polling stations be monitored by judicial officials rather than by civil servants who have been blamed for ballot rigging in the past.
Another positive sign may be the emergence of Mubarak's son Gamal, 37, as a strategist to put new blood into politics. In a Time interview, the younger Mubarak, a financial consultant who became a top NDP official this year, candidly spoke of the weaknesses of Egypt's political system and the failure of the NDP's candidates to impress voters. Nor was he shy about the challenges ahead. "The voter has sent us a message," Gamal said. "Change, change, change." His fellow Egyptians will take some satisfaction that their message is being heard.
— With reporting by Scott MacLeod / Cairo
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COVER STORY
Long Wait
There are lessons to be learned by the candidates, the teams and the people as the process goes on and on
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Back to the Ballot
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Great Pretender
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MIDDLE EAST
Mubarak's Destiny
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Nation Renovation
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Worldwatch
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