Nothing has changed, yet everything, has changed.
After last week's voting, Robert Mugabe, 78, is still President of
Zimbabwe. But those who experienced the chaotic election seem to have
witnessed events in parallel universes. To Mugabe's camp, the President's
announced 56% share of the vote in an "exemplary" poll was a "runaway
victory" in a free and fair election won on the critical issue of
land redistribution. To the opposition, it was "daylight robbery,"
a crime against democracy in which tens of thousands of people were
deprived, by brute force and dirty tricks, of their right to vote
for chinja — change.
With Mugabe's proclaimed victory in an exercise widely assailed —
in the measured language of diplomacy — as "flawed," he has
confounded not only his fellow Zimbabweans, but also his African neighbors,
his Commonwealth cohorts and Western nations that wish to see democracy
flourish across Africa. The election result had a morbid air of predictability
about it, and its consequences are, in these early days, far from
clear. "I guess this is our reality check," says Patrick Garaba, a
building contractor in the densely populated suburbs around Harare,
the capital. "We lived in the hope that this time the people's loud
cry for justice and change would be heard, but now I see that it was
an illusion." In a post-election climate fraught with fear, anger,
frustration and diplomatic maneuvering, the urgent question is: What
now? How soon, and in what manner, that question will be answered
remains to be seen. Mugabe's main challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai, 50,
leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, is weighing his options.
To challenge what he calls "blatant stealing of the election" in which
he supposedly polled only 42% of the vote, will Tsvangirai send his
lawyers into the courts, or his supporters onto the streets? Will
Mugabe follow through on his earlier allegations of treason and have
Tsvangirai put on trial, or will some accommodation with the opposition
be reached? If mass protests are held, or the populace explodes in
anger, how would the security forces and the young militants of Mugabe's
ZANU-PF party respond?
For the immediate future, Zimbabwe will have Mugabe at its helm, where
he has been since the country's independence from Britain in 1980.
A hero of Africa's liberation struggles, he has grown increasingly
authoritarian. By seizing white-owned farms and handing them over
to his black supporters, he seeks to be remembered forever as "the
man who gave Africa back to the Africans — for free," in the
words of a leading Zimbabwean economist and commentator, John Robertson.
Mugabe himself has kept mum since the vote tally that gave him another
six-year term in office. Usually unresponsive to outside pressure,
he appears to be waiting to see what the West does next. What is clear,
however, is that the international community is looking to Africa
— and South Africa in particular — to lead the way. Mugabe's
dubious election victory is no comfort to Thabo Mbeki, his South African
counterpart, who now finds himself in the spotlight as the African
leader best placed to bring Mugabe into line with acceptable democratic
standards. With President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria and Prime Minister
John Howard of Australia, Mbeki sits on a panel that is to decide
whether to suspend Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth if its observers
find that the voting was not free and fair. And diplomatic circles
are buzzing with reports that Mbeki and Obasanjo are pushing Mugabe
to form a government of national unity. While saying he was "open-minded"
on the matter, Tsvangirai emphasized he was interested in "a new political
culture," not simply a "leadership arrangement." South Africa is the
only country with real economic leverage, as it controls Zimbabwe's
supplies of fuel and electricity — though Mugabe has grown closer
in recent years to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who has long sought
to increase his influence in Africa. Pressure is also sure to come
from the E.U., which pulled its election observer team out of Zimbabwe
in mid-February following interference by the Mugabe government. In
conjunction with the U.S., the E.U. is thought likely to extend its
"smart sanctions" against Zimbabwean officials, their families and
their European financial assets. At its summit meeting in Barcelona
at the weekend, the E.U. opted to send its own troika to southern
Africa and referred the sanctions issue to its foreign ministers.
Wide sanctions, the governments feel, would unfairly harm Zimbabwe's
general population, which is already suffering from food shortages.
The country's woes include 117% inflation and 60% unemployment, as
well as a crippling shortage of foreign currency and of basic commodities.
The nightmare is inextricably linked to Mugabe's ambitious and controversial
version of land reform. Previously, Zimbabwe's white-dominated commercial
agriculture had generated 66% of the domestic economy and accounted
for 50% of the country's foreign-exchange earnings. A few companies
still bring in some foreign currency from the trickle of South African
and European visitors, mainly to Victoria Falls, though most tourists
now go to hotels on the Zambian side of the Zambezi River. "Zimbabwe
has become a no-go place," says tour operator Sipiwe Matebula. "We
have Mugabe to thank for that." Against overwhelming domestic and
international advice, Mugabe proceeded with his land project in early
2000, sanctioning raids on white-owned farms by ZANU-PF supporters
and veterans of the 1970s anticolonial war. In the wake of Mugabe's
re-election, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his allies in Australia
and New Zealand have revived efforts to have Zimbabwe suspended from
the Commonwealth for flouting its democratic and legal principles.
Throwing down the gauntlet, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said the
British government does not recognize the Zimbabwean election result
"nor its legitimacy." Events have confirmed Britain's earlier judgment,
Straw said: "Zimbabweans have plainly been denied their fundamental
right to choose by whom they should be governed."
Not all members of the Commonwealth — most of them former British
colonies — are likely to act against Mugabe, however. "It was
up to the people of Zimbabwe to decide who should lead them," said
President Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania, "and the people of Zimbabwe
have now spoken loudly and clearly. It would be a great tragedy for
anyone to try to determine the outcome of an African election in Europe."
President Daniel arap Moi of Kenya echoed Mkapa, noting that Mugabe's
victory was "testimony of the confidence and high esteem" in which
Zimbabweans held him.
While Mbeki's african national Congress was quick to express its "warm
congratulations" to Mugabe and his ZANU-PF, the South African President
has not yet made an official statement. Mbeki says he will first consider
the findings of election observer missions. A team acting for the
14-nation Southern African Development Community, comprising scores
of regional parliamentarians, declared that the vote had fallen short
of sadc norms, which stipulate that elections should be transparent,
bolstered by a free press, conducted on a level playing field and
independently monitored. At week's end, a defiant Zimbabwe enacted
a new law curbing the activities of independent and foreign news media.
