Few countries took greater satisfaction in the possibilities for peace in the Middle East than Turkey. Now, few can have as many qualms about their deterioriation.
Israel, Turkey's strategic military ally and economic partner, insists it cannot pull back from its latest assaults on Palestinians while "terrorist" attacks continue. The Palestinians, whose plight attracts the sympathy of Turkey's religious right and secular left alike, view the situation in reverse. Reflecting Ankara's concern that one of its policy cornerstones — friendship with Israel — is in danger of collapse amid the bloodshed, Foreign Minister Ismail Cem wants to lead by dramatic example. Cem and his Greek counterpart, George Papandreou, hope to stage a diplomatic coup de theatre by heading a peace delegation to Israel and the West Bank, carrying a "psychological message" — that old enemies can become friends. "We want to meet the Israeli leadership and President Arafat to facilitate the easing of tensions," says Cem. "Turkey and Greece initiating together such a visit has a symbolic significance." At the weekend, their plans were still just plans.
While Turkey has recognized Yasser Arafat's Palestinian state — and condemned Israel's treatment of him — it also does more than $1 billion in annual trade with Israel, not counting the military component, estimated at $200 million. On the eve of the Jewish state's latest attempt to crush the intifadeh, Turkey signed a $668 million deal with Israel Military Industries to modernize M60A1 tanks. That didn't keep Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit from accusing Ariel Sharon's government of commiting genocide — a particularly sensitive charge, given Armenian accusations of Turkish genocide in 1917, under Ottoman rule. Ecevit has since "clarified" his comment, saying he intended to "underline the importance of the situation," rather than "offend Jewish society."
As the only NATO country bordering Iraq, Turkey has grown in strategic importance to Washington, especially in the aftermath of Sept. 11. The intensity of the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict is seen in Turkey as postponing any U.S. invasion of Iraq. With the Middle East ablaze, the cost to U.S. prestige of invading an Arab country becomes increasingly higher. While events on the West Bank certainly horrify the Turks, they do not directly threaten Turkish security. An American action against Baghdad, though, could ignite a chain of events that might not only undermine Turkey's fragile economy but, in fracturing Iraq along ethnic lines, leave Turkey with a Kurdish state on its border. That, in turn, could ignite further unrest among Turkey's own Kurdish population.
George Bush's fixation with Iraq is "an irrational obsession," says Umit Ozdag, who heads the Eurasia Strategic Research Center, a conservative think tank in Ankara. "Turkey can live with Saddam Hussein for the next 10 years." If Bush, as he says, can't do likewise, Turkey's neighborhood is sure to become a far rougher patch.
