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JENS MEYER/AP |
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HEAD TO HEAD: The campaigns of Chancellor Gerhard Schröderand his conservative challenger Edmund Stoiber have focused on the economy and war with Iraq
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| Down to The Wire |
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Suddenly, the German election becomes too close to call — but would either candidate make much of a difference?
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By CHARLES P. WALLACE
/Berlin |
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Posted Sunday, Sep. 15, 2002; 2.38 p.m. BST
Gerhard Schroder is a survivor. Three years ago, when his Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost six straight local elections because of his government's tight-fisted budget policy, Schröder's future appeared bleak. But along came a slush-fund scandal to tarnish the leadership of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU), giving Schröder an unexpected boost. Only a month ago, the outcome of Germany's Sept. 22 parliamentary elections seemed boringly easy to predict: unemployment had hit 9.6%, and most polls suggested Schröder would lose by a wide margin to his conservative challenger, Edmund Stoiber. But thanks to two sudden crises — a flood disaster and the fear of war against Iraq — Schröder has pulled even with Stoiber. Says Hajo Funke, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin: "There's a chance now Schröder will make it."
It's still only a chance.Stoiber, premier of Bavaria and candidate of a revitalized CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), continued to hit the unemployment issue hard as campaigning entered the final stretch last week. But polls showed a real horse race. The Forsa polling institute gave Schröder's SPD 40% of the vote to 38% for Stoiber's CSU/CDU — the first time in this campaign that Schröder has taken the lead, however narrowly. That could mean the outcome of the election might be left to coalition partners such as the Green Party, which now rules with Schröder's government, or the Free Democrats (FDP), who traditionally share power with the conservatives. In the Forsa poll, the Greens had 7%, the FDP 8%.
What seems clear is that the economy, the most important issue until now, will no longer decide the election, which is more good news for Schröder. Luck again presented the beleaguered Chancellor with new issues to turn to his advantage when the two candidates clashed last week in their second televised debate. Schröder, 58, played the cool, articulate crisis manager while Stoiber, 60, slammed the unemployment problem but seemed the less charismatic man. A snap poll conducted right after the debate for ARD television found 61% supporting Schröder, 19% for Stoiber.
Schröder's comeback began in mid-August, when the River Elbe burst its banks, causing the worst central European floods in over a century. Schröder jumped on the crisis early, touring the stricken region by helicopter. His government helped organize work brigades to build sandbag walls in threatened areas. But his savviest political move was to swiftly come up with a reconstruction plan for the region, where damage was estimated at ?15 billion. Schröder offered ?7.1 billion to rebuild devastated parts of Bavaria, Saxony and Saxony Anhalt, then announced that a tax cut set for next year would be delayed for 12 months in order to foot the bill.
To postpone a tax cut in the middle of an election is to break the most basic rule of politics, but it worked — many consensus-driven Germans admired the way Schröder's plan would make the entire country share the cost of repairing the damage. Opinion polls showed his popularity climbing, especially in eastern Germany, where the floods did the most damage. Caught off guard, Stoiber denounced the manipulation of a tax cut to fund reconstruction, but his own suggestion — using profits from the country's central bank, requiring an increase in public debt — seemed to many a weaker alternative.
The Chancellor's second big boost came from the possibility of a war in Iraq. Paradoxically, it was Schröder — and his Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, a Green — who sent troops to Kosovo in 1999 and Afghanistan last year despite the qualms many Germans had about ordering soldiers abroad for the first time since World War II. Still, Schröder broke not only with the U.S. but also with his partners in the E.U. by ruling out any German involvement in an attack on Iraq, whether or not the action was approved by the U.N. "Under my leadership there will be no German participation in military interventions," he said during the debate. "The decisive question in war and peace is: Will German soldiers take part under your leadership, yes or no?"
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