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ALIK KEPLICZ/AP |
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STICKING POINT:
Bush and Schröder have fallen out over Bush's plan to go after Saddam Hussein |
Posted Sunday, Sep. 29, 2002; 1.58 p.m. BST
A disinterested oberver might be forgiven for thinking that Bush would have some sympathy for the beleaguered Chancellor. Schröder fought an incredibly close campaign — in the end, he won by less than 9,000 votes, thanks to a surprisingly strong showing from Fischer's Green Party. If Schröder made some remarks that now seem shallow and opportunistic, who can blame him? Surely not Bush, who knows what it's like to live with an uncomfortably thin margin of victory and who had no qualms about allowing his surrogates to savage his opponent John McCain when the outcome of the Feb. 2000 Republican primary in South Carolina was in doubt.
But Berlin and Washington should be wary of how long they let this tiff drag on. Schröder, for one, can't afford to be isolated — from the U.S. or from his European Union partners — after spending his first term in office gently reasserting a German return to normality in foreign policy. His campaign talk of a "German way" in international affairs was perceived as a deliberate snub to the E.U.'s nascent common foreign and security policy. And Schröder went down this German path all by himself, without consulting his closest European partners. Talk about unilateralism! Such antics are expected from Paris. But from Berlin?
Schröder knows that a cold war of words with Washington won't be good for German business. Trade between the U.S. and Germany — the first and third largest economies in the world, respectively — totals some $90 billion a year. "We urgently have to repair relations with America," said Klaus Braeunig of the Federation of German Industry. "Every seventh job in Germany is dependent on the car industry. We want our American friends to keep buying German cars."
A long estrangement from the Germans is not in American interests either. Though the U.S. is clearly capable of taking out Saddam alone, Bush will need allies both during and after the fight. Indeed, the toughest battles may in fact be fought on the streets of Berlin, Paris and London, where public opinion is overwhelmingly against war. And after Saddam is gone, the White House will sorely need help keeping the peace (not to mention paying for it) as it sketches a new political future for Iraq. The Europeans — the Germans prominent among them — have already shown a willingness to take on this task in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan. So the Administration needs friends too.
As the testosterone levels began to subside, Schröder did offer up some concessions. First, Justice Minister Däubler-Gmelin was told there is no place for her in the new cabinet and she resigned. Then Defense Minister Struck unveiled a plan for the Germans and Dutch to take over joint command of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan in January. The Germans hope this will reassure the U.S. of their support for the war on terror, but Washington initially rejected the plan.
Despite these conciliatory gestures, Schröder showed no sign of backing off his stance on Iraq. "As part of a friendship, it must be possible to have different opinions," he said. "This difference in view will remain." It would be politically difficult for the Chancellor to say anything else so soon after the election. What really matters is what he says and does if — or when — America strikes Iraq. Given the fact that his winning margin came from the antiwar vote, though, Schröder might not be able to shift his position without triggering a massive domestic crisis.
Right on cue, the Bush Administration began making noises about giving Schröder a second chance. Speaking to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week, Secretary of State Powell admitted that "a serious breach occurred," but went on to say that "we have been good friends with Germany for many years, we will remain good friends in the years to come."
While it's clear that this dispute can't — and won't — be allowed to permanently sabotage relations, it's equally clear that it's more than just a case of hurt feelings. Schröder has a lot of work to do to restore German credibility. "The rules of diplomacy will start to take over," says a senior Administration official. "But [Bush and Schröder] are never going to share toothpaste." Fair enough. As long as they kiss and make up.
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