The desperation of people like Behcet may help explain the appeal of Cem Uzan, the free-medicine-and-no-taxes candidate who has no experience in politics and not long ago was best known for having been found in contempt of a U.S. court after his business partners — Nokia and Motorola — accused him of failing to make good on nearly $3 billion in debt. Uzan's critics say he is running for office in order to obtain parliamentary immunity. On the stump, he bashes outsiders. "We have to kick the imf out of this country to wipe away the tears of the [people]," the billionaire told a recent rally. "We won't bow to foreigners!" Written off as a joke when he launched his campaign, Uzan rode the exposure from the television stations he controls to third or fourth place in the polls, before falling back in recent days.

More sober-minded Turks are placing their bets for economic recovery on Kemal Dervis and the CHP. The former World Bank vice president is widely credited with negotiating the $16 billion IMF package that rescued Turkey from default. The markets are praying he will return as Economy Minister to ensure Turkey stays on track with its reforms.

In an interview with TIME at his Istanbul apartment overlooking the Bosphorous, Dervis argued that the worst of Turkey's crisis was over. "The exchange rate has stabilized, inflation is down and growth has picked up," he says, a copy of the World Bank tome Government at Risk on his coffee table. He lists key indicators, including a surge in exports to Europe, as evidence that Turkey has turned the corner. Still, it will be a year before the benefits of reforms such as the restructuring of banking and agricultural sectors are felt on the ground. Investment remains less than a paltry $1 billion a year. A war in Iraq would also delay recovery, he says, so he's calling on the U.S. to set up a trust fund to help Turkey should the bombs start to fall. But Dervis denies that he's indispensable to recovery. His team has built in guarantees of financial probity — like the independence of the central bank — that will survive regardless of who is in power. The recovery "will do fine without me," he says.

As Dervis' remarks make clear, the specter of a U.S. attack on Iraq lurks behind all of Turkey's plans. Few countries would be more directly affected by war. Ankara has consistently opposed the proposed U.S.-led action, which would involve at least one NATO base on Turkish soil, though in the end no government is likely to spurn Washington outright.

Not only will a war cost Turks dearly — Ankara claims they lost $40 billion in trade revenue after the first Gulf War — but it could also sow political havoc among the Kurds in the country's southeast. The border with northern Iraq has already been shut due to mounting tensions, eliminating millions of dollars a month in revenue. "We are tired of being a refugee camp," complains businessman Karaboga, who also represents industrialists and traders along the Iraq border. Asked if he would open up Turkey's airspace and non-NATO military bases to the U.S. in the event of war, even Erdogan hedged: "In Turkey we have a saying, 'Don't sew the clothes before the baby is born.'"

That adage doesn't seem to apply to the prospect of E.U. membership, a suit for which Turkey has been busily sewing even though it has no firm date to start membership negotiations. When the European Commission declined to give Turkey a date for such talks earlier this month, the main reason was not economic but political. Among the key concerns: the ongoing influence of Turkey's military on civilian affairs and the recent banning of political parties and leaders. "What can you say about a country that has to ban its most popular politician?" asks one veteran Western diplomat. Ongoing reports of torture, especially in the southeast, have also drawn criticism. "There are laws on the books to prevent it," says an E.U. official in Ankara. "But it is still continuing."

The treatment of minorities is another area of concern. Significant reforms — such as a lifting of restrictions on instruction and broadcasting in the Kurdish language — were passed this summer to improve the lot of Turkey's Kurds. But these and other changes still need to be put into effect. How, or even whether, that is done will depend on who wins next week. If the AK party does, it is likely to continue to support Turkey's E.U. bid if for no other reason than the process will make it more difficult for the party to be banned, thanks to E.U. guarantees on freedom of expression. "Without the E.U., the AK wouldn't exist," says Can Paker, head of TESEV, an Istanbul think tank.

Erdogan himself will not be permitted to serve as Prime Minister unless the party achieves a full majority and is able to introduce legislation to make him eligible, as he hinted to Time might happen. "It depends on the vote," he says. The party insists it will adhere to IMF reforms "with some adjustments," but even Dervis says he could see "small changes" to the 2003 IMF package. All parties claim to agree on foreign policy, though if the nationalist MHP were to do well it could make a deal on Cyprus less likely. Any coalition will have a built-in conflict between the Islamic-leaning AK and the other parties that are staunchly — in some cases, zealously — secular. The government is unlikely to speak with one voice. "Turks won't entrust themselves to a single party," says Atilla Yesilada, a market analyst in Istanbul.

Even if the policies of Ankara's new leaders are hard to discern, a debate is taking shape that is unlike anything Turkey has seen before. The old Turkey, in which parties were largely hierarchical, authoritarian and secular, is fading. There's now a clearer distinction between those who support minority rights, free speech, civil liberties and an open economy and those who do not. The debate is less about the E.U. than about European ideals. "The world will not leave us alone," says Yesilada. "If we don't act, our future will be dictated to us." Back in his Asian redoubt, Suleiman Ates would agree. In Turkey, Europe is not so much a place as a state of mind.

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