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KEVORK DJANSEZIAN/AP
LINE IN THE SAND: Despite the diplomacy, American troops are still massing on Kuwait's border with Iraq |
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Many see Chirac as an unlikely crusader for peace and justice. His 18-year stint as mayor of Paris was marred by allegations — which, because of presidential immunity, he has never had to face in court — that he presided over a lucrative kickback scheme to fund his then political party, the Rally for the Republic. The allegations inspired the popular satirical television show Les Guignols de l'Info to assign him the moniker Superliar. And he's never been a pacifist. As President in 1995, he defied international protests and worldwide demonstrations to test French nuclear weapons in the South Pacific.
To his supporters, though, none of this adds up to a lack of principle, and certainly doesn't disqualify him from taking a passionate stance on Iraq. "There should be no mistake that Chirac's biggest concern in opposing war is that it will have truly dire consequences in the Middle East," says writer Tillinac. "This is a stand Chirac is taking because he feels he must." His Middle East experience can't be dismissed, either. Like previous presidents of France, Chirac has traveled extensively in the region. On a visit to the Old City of Jerusalem in 1996, television cameras captured him rebuking Israeli security guards for their gruff treatment of Palestinian bystanders, an episode that increased his credibility at the time among France's estimated 5 million Muslims.
Like Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, Chirac had personal dealings with Saddam before the Iraqi dictator became a pariah, which some speculate may make the idea of attacking him less of an abstraction. "Chirac has no illusions about the danger Saddam poses," says conservative legislator and long-time Chirac supporter Pierre Lellouche. "He just doesn't see the same sense of urgency as the Americans do." But Chirac does feel a sense of urgency if an attack takes place. "A war of this kind cannot help but give a big lift to terrorism," he says. "It would create a large number of little bin Ladens." The aide to Tony Blair acknowledges that Chirac's pessimistic view of the fallout is one genuine motor of policy. But he also says that Chirac expressed similarly dire views before the conflicts in Kosovo and Afghanistan — and his fears were proved unwarranted.
Oil seems the least likely motivation for Chirac, though the effect of war on France's already struggling economy must certainly be an unwelcome prospect. According to one Western diplomat, "If what France really cared about was getting the spoils in a post-Saddam Iraq, they'd be taking a very different tack," cozying up to America rather than defying it. A spokeswoman for TotalFinaElf, the French firm that until last year spent a decade negotiating still unconcluded oil contracts with Saddam's regime, says that all they want is "a level playing field so that all players can put forth their bids in accordance with international norms."
In the end, it all comes down to one question: Can Chirac's plan for an open-ended commitment to more rigorous inspections work? The French President still has a lot of convincing to do, given that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell made an uncontested case before the Security Council two weeks ago that Saddam is still refusing to come clean. And last week, Powell passionately reminded the Security Council that the thrust of Resolution 1441 is for Saddam to proactively report weapons programs and eliminate them, not to evade inspectors until he's caught. "We don't need more inspectors with flashlights," Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said last week. "We need Saddam to turn the lights on."
Chirac's alternative is clearly intended to keep Saddam in the glare of international attention. The plan calls for increasing the number of inspectors from 110 to as many as 360, and broadening their expertise to include customs and accounting. France proposes that aerial surveillance be intensified with overflights of French Mirage IV aircraft, and that a permanent in-country coordinator be put in place. Chancellor Schröder leaked to the newsweekly Der Spiegel a version of a "Franco-German" plan that included the now disavowed notion that thousands of U.N. peacekeepers would protect the inspectors. It wasn't until later that he shared the plan with his Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer.
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