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Though it would require extraordinary contortions from him at this point, Chirac has never excluded the possibility of joining in a war against Saddam, however distant that possibility may be from the mind of the average French citizen. France's diplomatic efforts now will center on stalling any consideration of a second U.N. resolution until after Hans Blix's next official report to the Security Council. If that report is damning, "Chirac can say he tried everything, but Saddam was just too stupid, and France will have to join in," says Guillaume Parmentier, an analyst at the French Institute of International Relations. "The Socialists will go berserk, and selling the switch to the public will not be easy, but it's in the cards." If Blix's report indicates that the inspections are working, Chirac will have another reason to resist a second resolution. Even then, he may respond not with a veto but with the diplomatic equivalent of a Gallic shrug — avoiding a final showdown with America and a humiliating knuckling-under to the Anglo-Saxons.
The dilemma is less acute for German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who for months has maintained a fundamental position of nein. Because Germany has no veto power in the Security Council, it is under less pressure than France. But the Schröder government can't harbor any illusions that its opposition is cost-free. In another signal of displeasure with Schröder, the Bush Administration last week rolled out the carpet for Angela Merkel, the German opposition leader, who was granted access to top Administration officials from Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.
For now, European opposition to the war appears to be more of a nuisance than a real problem for the U.S. In Belgium, protesters have repeatedly tried to block trains carrying U.S. matériel from German bases to the port of Antwerp, but U.S. Army officials at European Command in Stuttgart say they haven't even noticed. Public dissent in Europe seems to be making a similarly weak impression on Washington's war calculations. But Bush does need allies; if not to prosecute the fighting, then to manage and help pay for the reconstruction of Iraq. So it's in his interest that his supporters are still in power when the shooting stops.
"The government doesn't listen to us when we ask them to stop facilitating this war," says Finbar Gerald, 30, a former aircraft engineer who was among the protesters who tried and failed to disrupt operations last weekend at Ireland's Shannon airport, where planes carrying U.S. troops to the Gulf stop to refuel. "So people have to do more than ask." What they're doing now is protesting and engaging in direct action. But soon enough they'll be voting too, and that's something Europe's leaders may want to keep in mind.
With reporting by Mairead Carey/Shannon, Helen Gibson/London, Jeff Israely/Pisa, John Miller/Brussels, Jane Walker/Madrid and Regine Wosnitza/Berlin
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