Steady, Go!

It was billed as Germany's first-ever political duel — a face-to-face, bare-knuckles debate between candidates for Chancellor in national elections Sept. 22. But despite their closeness in the polls and with just two months more of campaigning, the confrontation last week between Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his conservative rival, Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber, seemed more a polite dialogue than a political punch-up. "Herr Schröder promises a lot but delivers little," complained Stoiber. "I consider [Stoiber] wrong for the economic, political and social development of Germany," retorted Schröder.

The debate, which was held in private at the offices of the mass-circulation newspaper Bild — a transcript was printed over three days — also made clear there's really only one issue in the campaign: unemployment. "The Chancellor has not kept his central promise to push unemployment under 3.5 million people," said Stoiber. "He also made clear that he wanted to have himself tested on this promise and that he did not deserve to be re-elected if he did not fulfill it."

Schröder's promise to cut unemployment, made before the last election in 1998, is coming back to haunt him. Figures for June showed the number of jobless rose by 39,000. Seasonally adjusted, unemployment was above the politically sensitive 4 million mark, rising to 9.8% of the workforce, from 9.7% the previous month. At the same time, an effort by Schröder to arrange a bailout for Babcock Borsig, an engineering group with 22,000 employees, failed to win support of banks and the company was declared bankrupt, hurting Schröder's image as an economic troubleshooter.

He has little choice now but to try to wriggle out of his unemployment pledge. "Anybody who believes himself to be competent with regard to economic questions should be aware of the fact that an economy that is as dependent on exports as Germany is far more affected by world- wide economic collapse than other economies," Schröder told Stoiber.

"It's quite obvious that unemployment will be the issue, and it's dominating the debate," said Peter Lösche, a political scientist at the University of Gottingen. "People think Stoiber is much more competent in economic affairs than Schröder, and that's what counts. People vote with their pocketbooks." Opinion polls last week were unanimous in giving the lead toStoiber's alliance of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). In one, the influential Forsa poll published in Stern magazine, voters were asked which party they would vote for if the election were held today; the CDU/CSU garnered 39% of votes and Schröder's Social Democratic Party received 36%.Three other polls showed similar results.

Paradoxically, when pollsters ask people who they'd prefer as Chancellor, Schröder wins hands down by 44% to 29%. That reflects the failure of Stoiber's spin doctor, former Bild Sunday editor Michael Spreng, to make the candidate appear less wooden. In contrast, Schröder is a natural, garrulous politician. Stoiber denied Schröder's accusation that he is a nerd, saying instead that he is merely "industrious." In return, Stoiber draws attention to Schröder's three divorces, saying, "I will not allow others to discredit me because I am married to the same woman for 34 years."

Stoiber is counting heavily on his solid reputation as a manager of Bavaria's economy. The state has the second-lowest unemployment rate in the country, 5.3%, and has built a thriving high-tech culture by selling off state-owned companies and using the proceeds to invest in start-ups, especially in biotechnology. What's more, Bavaria had the best test scores in a nationwide rating of grammar school pupils.