Asia's Nightmare

Time is running out. In 2003, China and India face a life-or-death decision: either they take forceful steps to halt the aids epidemic in their countries, or let the disease accelerate into the bloodstream of society, killing millions of people over the next few years.

Every day 1,192 Asians die of aids-related diseases, and 2,658 become infected. Fatalities are still far lower than in Africa, but not for long. Asia has far more people than Africa, and Asians are more likely to move from country to country, seeking jobs, trading goods and looking for pleasure. Says Chris Beyrer, an aids expert at Baltimore's Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health: "This could become an enormous time bomb." An explosion is already shaking India, which has an estimated 4 million HIV sufferers. China, with its 1.3 billion people, looms as an especially large and potentially vulnerable target for the virus.

As it stalks across the country, it has mutated into deadlier sub-strains, making it impossible so far for scientists to lock down a possible cure. UNAIDS concluded that unless the epidemic is checked swiftly, it could strike 10 million Chinese by 2010. For too long, officialdom in China and India has treated the spread of aids with denial, like a family's dirty secret. Now, it may be too late.

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