Agenda for a Second Term

Wednesday, Nov. 03, 2004 By J.F.O. MCALLISTER | LONDON
CHRISTOPHER FURLONG/GETTY IMAGES
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President Bush's foreign-policy team will have to focus most of its energy on fixing Iraq after an occupation that even they admit was badly planned. But inevitably, other international problems will be competing for Bush's attention as well.

MIDDLE EAST PEACE
During Bush's first term, Palestinian and Israeli politics have become more polarized. With Arafat potentially off the field, Hamas is in a stronger position to compete for authority with the Palestinian leader's eventual successors in Fatah. Sharon faces an internal rebellion of his own over plans to close settlements and withdraw from Gaza. All in all, the prospects of a broader Camp David–style deal seem remote. But Europe would like Bush to throw himself into the treacherous waters of peacemaking — and he just may do so.

IRAN
Despite Western jitters about Iran getting nukes, there's a strong consensus in Tehran to proceed with nuclear enrichment; the Iranians say it's for peaceful purposes, but the Americans and Europeans worry that the material could be used to develop a bomb. European diplomats have been angered by evidence of Iranian nuclear cheating after previous deals, and Bush aides have been waiting for the election to step up pressure. Nevertheless, U.N. sanctions may founder on a veto by China. If the U.S. threatens unilateral steps, Iranian agents can easily make life harder for U.S. troops in next-door Iraq. The "nightmare scenario" is Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, which would cause worldwide outrage among Muslims. But a grand bargain welcoming Tehran back into the international community has so far failed to interest Bush.

RUSSIA/CHECHNYA
Bush has been a stalwart friend to Vladimir Putin, who has sold Bush on his view that Chechen rebels are part of global jihad. Bush offered little complaint as Putin cracked down in Chechnya and at home. Putin repaid the favor by openly backing Bush's re-election, and is further strengthened by oil at $50/bbl. Even so, no U.S. Administration will keep smiling if the Kremlin continues its campaign to stifle the press and opposition.

INTERNATIONAL LAW
Europe has grown restive with U.S. disdain for treaties and bodies that might make the world safer at the cost of U.S. autonomy, like the Kyoto accords on global warming, the International Criminal Court and a stronger U.N. Europe will applaud if the U.S. Supreme Court continues to upgrade legal standards for prisoners at Guantánamo. Few expect Bush's second term to be as unilateralist as the first. But he will be skeptical of treaties and international law.

ASIA
China's boom makes it an indispensable economic partner for Europe and the U.S., but its cheap wages and huge trade surplus lie behind popular complaints about "exporting American jobs" — which Bush may need to respond to. Washington doesn't want European companies to sell high-tech defense goods to Beijing that might give it an edge in a fight over Taiwan. The U.S. has said it can't tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea, but if no deal is struck, a confrontation — and perhaps a regional nuclear arms race — becomes a more likely scenario.

FISCAL AND TRADE ISSUES
The huge U.S. budget and current-account deficits have not been unduly punished by the markets because everyone wants the U.S. economic engine to keep going. But terror attacks or more instability in the Middle East could provoke soaring oil prices and a run on the dollar that would hurt the U.S. economy and put Bush on the defensive.