Ready for Prime Time?
The setting: the decrepit seaside resort of Blackpool, whose own mayor admits it's "a bit dated." The gathering: Britain's Conservative Party, whose members' dominant hair color is silver. The theme for their annual conference last week: "Today's Britain, Tomorrow's Conservatives." Like the whole scene, the slogan had an awkward edge, implying the Conservatives on hand today are not really a match for the problems of today's Britain.
After three big defeats by Labour, even the proudest veterans of Margaret Thatcher's revolution must be wondering whether deliverance will ever come. And despite a surprisingly sparkling convention that lent a rare air of enthusiasm to the party, they have reason to worry. According to a Populus poll, 49% of British adults believe that "politics would be better off if the Conservative Party was replaced by a new right-of-center party" — as do 44% of Tories themselves. Here are three reasons the Conservatives aren't ready to come back yet.
• THEY HAVEN'T GOT THE HORSEPOWER.
In addition to a dwindling membership (around 250,000, about the same as Labour) with an average age above 60, the Tories have lost so many parliamentary seats to Labour that they have only one M.P. in Scotland, just 12 out of 161 English seats north of Sheffield, and none in major cities like Manchester and Leeds. The party is notably floundering among women, professionals and young people. Maybe its strength in local government — an important feeder for national politics — and its 36 new seats won in May's general election can rev up momentum. But the way parliamentary constituencies are drawn, and the mechanics of the first-past-the-post voting system, mean the Tories have to outpoll Labour nationally by at least 10% to take a bare majority in Parliament.
• THEY HAVEN'T GOT THE VISION THING.
Aside from turfing out Labour and hankering for smaller government and lower taxes, Tories don't know what to sell the voters. Labour has proclaimed tough positions on the Conservatives' natural issues of crime, immigration and terror, and has co-opted Tory ideas of using private companies for public services. Lacking a distinctive parcel of centrist real estate, the Tories have bickered for years over the encroaching reach of Europe, which may worry some swing voters but not enough for them to vote Tory. The Blair years, says David Curry, an M.P. from one of the party's rare northern seats, have turned the Conservative Party "into a combination of existential musing and ancestor worship."
The pols in Blackpool devoted much earnest attention to plotting a new path. Senior figures were asked to suggest a dramatic "Clause Four" moment, recalling the big boost Labour received in 1995 when Tony Blair arm-twisted his party into renouncing its historic commitment to public ownership of the commanding heights of the economy. Among the suggestions: Should the party offer a welcome to asylum seekers instead of shunning them? Should top Tories pledge not to send their children to private schools? A more mainstream notion was to shift the party's focus to the problems of the poor, hoping to attract young people whose penchant for issue-oriented wristbands was cited as proof that politics is not dying. But no coherent set of policies beyond mutters of "compassionate conservatism" was on offer.
• THEY HAVEN'T GOT A HOT LEADER — YET.
The Tory image should sharpen when a new man takes charge in December. The party conclave got its biggest boost from the spirited horse race among five contenders vying for the job; much will depend on whether the stumbling front runner David Davis (widely deemed dull) holds off the hard-charging old gaffer Ken Clarke and the up-and-coming new boy David Cameron, who is only 38. The mere fact that there was such an open contest instead of the venomous backroom plotting of previous years prompted talk of a general revival in party fortunes. Many delegates surprised themselves by concluding they could support any of the candidates, even though they range from Europhile to Europhobe, from 38 to 65, from right-wing to right-of-center, from electrifying to wooden. Yet they agree that making a smart choice is crucial to turning the Tories from also-ran to credible alternative.
Labour probably has at least another four years in office, and whatever its woes — much in evidence at its own painfully regimented party conference — the Tories' first task is to ensure the party's persistent troubles do not cohere into a permanent image of a loser. "I think if you had asked my constituents before this week, they would say we had made a balls of it," says Brian Binley, a new M.P. from Northampton. Another new M.P. says he expects the Tories to lose the next election; one feel-good conference won't turn things around. "But," he continues, "I think we're making a start."
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